Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35902613›Full record

ArticleNature communications2022

Dynamics of competing SARS-CoV-2 variants during the Omicron epidemic in England.

Oliver Eales, Leonardo de Oliveira Martins, Andrew J Page, Haowei Wang, Barbara Bodinier, David Tang, David Haw, Jakob Jonnerby, Christina Atchison, Deborah Ashby and 9 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. The importance of playing the long game when it comes to pandemic surveillance.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. SARS-CoV-2 anti-N antibodies among healthcare personnel without previous known COVID-19.Antimicrobial stewardship & healthcare epidemiology : ASHE · 2024
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Fractal-fractional age-structure study of omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant transmission dynamics.Partial differential equations in applied mathematics : a spin-off of Applied Mathematics Letters · 2022
    Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors.

Oliver EalesSchool of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK. o.eales18@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-8086-4495
Leonardo de Oliveira MartinsQuadram Institute, Norwich, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5247-1320
Andrew J PageQuadram Institute, Norwich, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6919-6062
Haowei WangSchool of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Barbara BodinierSchool of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-0781-3624
David TangSchool of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6974-5663
David HawSchool of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Jakob JonnerbySchool of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Christina AtchisonSchool of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8304-7389
Deborah AshbySchool of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3146-7466
Wendy BarclayDepartment of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3948-0895
Graham TaylorDepartment of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-3773-2390
Graham CookeDepartment of Infectious Disease, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6475-5056
Helen WardSchool of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8238-5036
Ara DarziImperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-7815-7989
Steven RileySchool of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Paul ElliottSchool of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK. p.elliott@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-7511-5684
Christl A DonnellySchool of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK. c.donnelly@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-0195-2463
Marc Chadeau-HyamSchool of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK. m.chadeau@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0001-8341-5436

Funding

Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council BB/R012504/1British Heart Foundation RE/18/4/34215Cancer Research UK 22184Department of Health PR-OD-1017-20007Medical Research Council MC_PC_17114Medical Research Council MC_PC_19012Medical Research Council MR/J008761/1Medical Research Council MR/L01341X/1Medical Research Council MR/L015080/1Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1Medical Research Council MR/S019669/1Medical Research Council MR/T030062/1Wellcome Trust 200861/Z/16/ZWellcome Trust 205456/Z/16/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been characterised by the regular emergence of genomic variants. With natural and vaccine-induced population immunity at high levels, evolutionary pressure favours variants better able to evade SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies. The Omicron variant (first detected in November 2021) exhibited a high degree of immune evasion, leading to increased infection rates worldwide. However, estimates of the magnitude of this Omicron wave have often relied on routine testing data, which are prone to several biases. Using data from the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study, a series of cross-sectional surveys assessing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England, we estimated the dynamics of England's Omicron wave (from 9 September 2021 to 1 March 2022). We estimate an initial peak in national Omicron prevalence of 6.89% (5.34%, 10.61%) during January 2022, followed by a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections as the more transmissible Omicron sub-lineage, BA.2 replaced BA.1 and BA.1.1. Assuming the emergence of further distinct variants, intermittent epidemics of similar magnitudes may become the 'new normal'.

Indexed as

COVID-19EpidemicsAntibodies, ViralCross-Sectional StudiesHumansSARS-CoV-2Antibodies, Viral

Identifiers

PMID35902613
PMCPMC9330949

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.