ArticleDiseases (Basel, Switzerland)2022
Predicting the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italian Regions: The Calabria Case Study, February 2020-March 2022.
Article in Diseases (Basel, Switzerland), 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Equine Influenza: Epidemiology, Pathogenesis, and Strategies for Prevention and Control.Viruses · 2025Review
- Graph-based epidemic modeling of West Nile Virus: Forecasting and containment.F1000Research · 2025Article
- A One Health Platform for Future Epidemic Preparedness.Infectious disease reports · 2024Article
- The COVID-19 Pandemic Is Over, but the Virus Still Lingers.Diseases (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- COVID-19: Where We Are and Where We Are Going.Diseases (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- The challenges of open data for future epidemic preparedness: The experience of the 2022 Ebolavirus outbreak in Uganda.Frontiers in pharmacology · 2023Article
- All-People-Test-Based Methods for COVID-19 Infectious Disease Dynamics Simulation Model: Towards Citywide COVID Testing.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Managing epidemics in the digital age: the crucial role of social media in information dissemination.Pathogens and global healthArticle
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Despite the stunning speed with which highly effective and safe vaccines have been developed, the emergence of new variants of SARS-CoV-2 causes high rates of (re)infection, a major impact on health care services, and a slowdown to the socio-economic system. For COVID-19, accurate and timely forecasts are therefore essential to provide the opportunity to rapidly identify risk areas affected by the pandemic, reallocate the use of health resources, design countermeasures, and increase public awareness. This paper presents the design and implementation of an approach based on autoregressive models to reliably forecast the spread of COVID-19 in Italian regions. Starting from the database of the Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC), the experimental evaluation was performed on real-world data collected from February 2020 to March 2022, focusing on Calabria, a region of Southern Italy. This evaluation shows that the proposed approach achieves a good predictive power for out-of-sample predictions within one week (R-squared > 0.9 at 1 day, R-squared > 0.7 at 7 days), although it decreases with increasing forecasted days (R-squared > 0.5 at 14 days).
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