ArticleViruses2022
EpiRegress: A Method to Estimate and Predict the Time-Varying Effective Reproduction Number.
Article in Viruses, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- A flexible framework for local-level estimation of the effective reproductive number in geographic regions with sparse data.BMC medical research methodology · 2025Article
- A Flexible Framework for Local-Level Estimation of the Effective Reproductive Number in Geographic Regions with Sparse Data.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- EpiMix: A novel method to estimate effective reproduction number.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- The impact of earlier reopening to travel in the Western Pacific on SARS-CoV-2 transmission.IJID regions · 2023Article
- Article
- The rapid and efficient strategy for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron transmission control: analysis of outbreaks at the city level.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The time-varying reproduction (Rt) provides a real-time estimate of pathogen transmissibility and may be influenced by exogenous factors such as mobility and mitigation measures which are not directly related to epidemiology parameters and observations. Meanwhile, evaluating the impacts of these factors is vital for policy makers to propose and adjust containment strategies. Here, we developed a Bayesian regression framework, EpiRegress, to provide Rt estimates and assess impacts of diverse factors on virus transmission, utilising daily case counts, mobility, and policy data. To demonstrate the method's utility, we used simulations as well as data in four regions from the Western Pacific with periods of low COVID-19 incidence, namely: New South Wales, Australia; New Zealand; Singapore; and Taiwan, China. We found that imported cases had a limited contribution on the overall epidemic dynamics but may degrade the quality of the Rt estimate if not explicitly accounted for. We additionally demonstrated EpiRegress's capability in nowcasting disease transmissibility before contemporaneous cases diagnosis. The approach was proved flexible enough to respond to periods of atypical local transmission during epidemic lulls and to periods of mass community transmission. Furthermore, in epidemics where travel restrictions are present, it is able to distinguish the influence of imported cases.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.