ArticleViruses2022
Temporal and Spatial Patterns and a Space-Time Cluster Analysis of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Ethiopia from 2010 to 2019.
Article in Viruses, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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8 citing papers in PubMed, 11 citations in OpenAlex.
- Spatiotemporal trends of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in Bangladesh from 2017 to 2023 and their associations with climatic factors and machine learning (ML) based prediction.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Evolutionary and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Ethiopia (1957-2025): A Molecular Perspective on Serotype Persistence and Emergence.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2026Review
- Spatial and temporal patterns of foot and mouth disease outbreaks (2011-2022) in cattle export-sourcing areas of southeastern Ethiopia.BMC veterinary research · 2025Article
- Serotype Diversity and Molecular Characterization of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Viruses From Outbreaks in Ethiopia (2019-2023): Re-Emergence of SAT 2 After 30 Years.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2025Article
- Spatial and temporal distribution of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in Algeria from 2014 to 2022.Veterinary world · 2024Article
- Spatiotemporal analysis and forecasting of lumpy skin disease outbreaks in Ethiopia based on retrospective outbreak reports.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2024Article
- A review of foot-and-mouth disease in Ethiopia: epidemiological aspects, economic implications, and control strategies.Virology journal · 2023Review
- A scoping review of foot-and-mouth disease risk, based on spatial and spatio-temporal analysis of outbreaks in endemic settings.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2022Article
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6 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an endemic disease in Ethiopia, although space-time cluster and monthly variation studies have never been assessed at national level. The current study aimed to identify the spatial and temporal distribution of FMD outbreaks in Ethiopia from national outbreak reports over a period of ten years from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2019. To this end, a total of 376,762 cases and 1302 outbreaks from 704 districts were obtained from the Minister of Agriculture for analyses. In general, the dry periods, i.e., October to March, of the year were recorded as the peak outbreak periods, with the highest prevalence in March 2012. The monthly average and the outbreak trends over ten years show a decrease of outbreaks from 2010 to 2019. Decomposing the FMD outbreak data time series showed that once an outbreak erupted, it continued for up to five years. Only 12% of the reported outbreaks were assigned to a specific serotype. Within these outbreaks, the serotypes O, A, SAT-2, and SAT-1 were identified in decreasing order of prevalence, respectively. When a window of 50% for the maximum temporal/space cluster size was set, a total of seven FMD clusters were identified in space and time. The primary cluster with a radius of 380.95 km was identified in the southern part of Ethiopia, with a likelihood ratio of 7.67 (observed/expected cases). The third cluster, with a radius of 144.14 km, was identified in the northeastern part of the country, and had a likelihood ratio of 5.66. Clusters 1 and 3 occurred from January 2017 to December 2019. The second cluster that occurred had a radius of 294.82 km, a likelihood ratio of 6.20, and was located in the central and western parts of Ethiopia. The sixth cluster, with a radius of 36.04 km and a likelihood ratio of 20.60, was set in southern Tigray, bordering Afar. Clusters 2 and 6 occurred in the same period, from January 2014 to December 2016. The fourth cluster in northern Tigray had a calculated radius of 95.50 km and a likelihood ratio of 1.17. The seventh cluster occurred in the north-central Amhara region, with a radius of 97 km and a likelihood ratio of 1.16. Clusters 4 and 7 occurred between January 2010 and December 2013. The spatiotemporal and cluster analysis of the FMD outbreaks identified in the context of the current study are crucial in implementing control, prevention, and a prophylactic vaccination schedule. This study pointed out October to March as well as the main time of the year during which FMD outbreaks occur. The area that extends from the south to north, following the central highlands, is the main FMD outbreak area in Ethiopia.
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