Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35891538›Full record

ArticleViruses2022

Temporal and Spatial Patterns and a Space-Time Cluster Analysis of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Ethiopia from 2010 to 2019.

Fanos Tadesse Woldemariyam, Samson Leta, Zerihun Assefa, Etsegent Tekeba, Dereje Shegu Gebrewold, Jan Paeshuyse

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Article in Viruses, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed
2.6field-weighted citation impact, top 11% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed, 11 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.

Fanos Tadesse WoldemariyamLaboratory of Host Pathogen Interaction, Department of Biosystems, Division of Animal and Human Health Engineering, KU Leuven, 3001 Leuven, Belgium.ORCID 0000-0002-3060-7060
Samson LetaLaboratory of Host Pathogen Interaction, Department of Biosystems, Division of Animal and Human Health Engineering, KU Leuven, 3001 Leuven, Belgium.ORCID 0000-0003-4792-5978
Zerihun AssefaDepartment of Biomedical Sciences, College of Veterinary Medicine and Agriculture, Addis Ababa University, Bishoftu P.O. Box 34, Ethiopia.
Etsegent TekebaEpidemiology Directorate, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 62347, Ethiopia.
Dereje Shegu GebrewoldNational Animal Health Diagnostic and Investigation Center, Sebata P.O. Box 04, Ethiopia.
Jan PaeshuyseLaboratory of Host Pathogen Interaction, Department of Biosystems, Division of Animal and Human Health Engineering, KU Leuven, 3001 Leuven, Belgium.ORCID 0000-0003-2396-354X
Addis Ababa University · ETGovernment of Ethiopia · ETKU Leuven · BE

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an endemic disease in Ethiopia, although space-time cluster and monthly variation studies have never been assessed at national level. The current study aimed to identify the spatial and temporal distribution of FMD outbreaks in Ethiopia from national outbreak reports over a period of ten years from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2019. To this end, a total of 376,762 cases and 1302 outbreaks from 704 districts were obtained from the Minister of Agriculture for analyses. In general, the dry periods, i.e., October to March, of the year were recorded as the peak outbreak periods, with the highest prevalence in March 2012. The monthly average and the outbreak trends over ten years show a decrease of outbreaks from 2010 to 2019. Decomposing the FMD outbreak data time series showed that once an outbreak erupted, it continued for up to five years. Only 12% of the reported outbreaks were assigned to a specific serotype. Within these outbreaks, the serotypes O, A, SAT-2, and SAT-1 were identified in decreasing order of prevalence, respectively. When a window of 50% for the maximum temporal/space cluster size was set, a total of seven FMD clusters were identified in space and time. The primary cluster with a radius of 380.95 km was identified in the southern part of Ethiopia, with a likelihood ratio of 7.67 (observed/expected cases). The third cluster, with a radius of 144.14 km, was identified in the northeastern part of the country, and had a likelihood ratio of 5.66. Clusters 1 and 3 occurred from January 2017 to December 2019. The second cluster that occurred had a radius of 294.82 km, a likelihood ratio of 6.20, and was located in the central and western parts of Ethiopia. The sixth cluster, with a radius of 36.04 km and a likelihood ratio of 20.60, was set in southern Tigray, bordering Afar. Clusters 2 and 6 occurred in the same period, from January 2014 to December 2016. The fourth cluster in northern Tigray had a calculated radius of 95.50 km and a likelihood ratio of 1.17. The seventh cluster occurred in the north-central Amhara region, with a radius of 97 km and a likelihood ratio of 1.16. Clusters 4 and 7 occurred between January 2010 and December 2013. The spatiotemporal and cluster analysis of the FMD outbreaks identified in the context of the current study are crucial in implementing control, prevention, and a prophylactic vaccination schedule. This study pointed out October to March as well as the main time of the year during which FMD outbreaks occur. The area that extends from the south to north, following the central highlands, is the main FMD outbreak area in Ethiopia.

Indexed as

Cattle DiseasesFoot-and-Mouth DiseaseFoot-and-Mouth Disease VirusAnimalsCattleCluster AnalysisDisease OutbreaksEthiopiaclusterEthiopiaFMDFMDVoutbreakspatiotemporal

Identifiers

PMID35891538
PMCPMC9322932
OpenAlexW4285732630

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.