ArticleVaccines2022
Forecasted Trends of the New COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Omicron Variant in Thailand, 2022.
Article in Vaccines, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 24 citations in OpenAlex.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Near complete genome sequences from Southern Vietnam revealed local features of genetic diversity and intergenerational changes in SARS- CoV-2 variants in 2020-2021.BMC infectious diseases · 2023Trial
- Changes in the Epidemiology of Multidrug-Resistant Organisms During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Six-Year Retrospective Study at a Tertiary Care Hospital in Northeastern Thailand.Medical sciences (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Observational
- Potential Public Health Impact of Updated COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies in Thailand: Epidemiological Data Update.Pulmonary therapy · 2026Article
- Prevalence and associated factors of dysphonia in non-hospitalized Thai COVID-19 patients: a descriptive study with Thai-VHI10 Assessment.Asian biomedicine : research, reviews and news · 2024Article
- Healthcare providers' hospital breastfeeding practices during the COVID-19 endemic and associated factors in Thailand: a cross-sectional study.BMC nursing · 2024Article
- Associations between clinical data, vaccination status, antibody responses, and post-COVID-19 symptoms in Thais infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants: a 1-year follow-up study.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Monitoring of adaptive immune responses in healthcare workers who received a Coronavirus disease 2019 vaccine booster dose.Health science reports · 2024Article
- Seroprevalence of Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in Cats during Five Waves of COVID-19 Epidemic in Thailand and Correlation with Human Outbreaks.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2024Article
- COVID-19 with high-sensitivity CRP associated with worse dynamic clinical parameters and outcomes.Frontiers in medicine · 2024Article
- Knowledge and attitude toward oral health behavior of overseas students during the COVID-19 pandemic.BMC oral health · 2023Article
- The Principles of SARS-CoV-2 Intervariant Competition Are Exemplified in the Pre-Omicron Era of the Colombian Epidemic.Microbiology spectrum · 2023Article
- Article
- The Effects of CoronaVac and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 in Reducing Severe Illness in Thailand: A Retrospective Cohort Study.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
- Combined Impact of Omicron Vaccination and Environmental Risk Exposure: A Thailand Case Study.Vaccines · 2023Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Thailand is among many countries severely affected by COVID-19 since the beginning of the global pandemic. Thus, a deliberate planning of health care resource allocation against health care demand in light of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant, Omicron, is crucial. This study aims to forecast the trends in COVID-19 cases and deaths from the Omicron variant in Thailand. We used a compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model combined with a system dynamics model. We developed four scenarios with differing values of the reproduction number (R) and vaccination rates. In the most pessimistic scenario (R = 7.5 and base vaccination rate), the number of incident cases reached a peak of 49,523 (95% CI: 20,599 to 99,362) by day 73, and the peak daily deaths grew to 270 by day 50. The predicted cumulative cases and deaths at the end of the wave were approximately 3.7 million and 22,000, respectively. In the most optimistic assumption (R = 4.5 and speedy vaccination rate), the peak incident cases was about one third the cases in the pessimistic assumption (15,650, 95% CI: 12,688 to 17,603). In the coming months, Thailand may face a new wave of the COVID-19 epidemic due to the Omicron variant. The case toll due to the Omicron wave is likely to outnumber the earlier Delta wave, but the death toll is proportionately lower. Vaccination campaigns for the booster dose should be expedited to prevent severe illnesses and deaths in the population.
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