ArticleCancers2022
Survival Prediction in Patients Treated Surgically for Metastases of the Appendicular Skeleton-An External Validation of 2013-SPRING Model.
Article in Cancers, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 3 citations in OpenAlex.
- Systematic review of 99 extremity bone malignancy survival prediction models.Journal of orthopaedics and traumatology : official journal of the Italian Society of Orthopaedics and Traumatology · 2025Pooled it
- Validation of nine prognostic models in patients with bone metastases undergoing surgery.Journal of orthopaedic surgery and research · 2025Article
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Authors and funding
12 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionThe aim of this study was to externally validate the 2013-SPRING model, a survival prediction tool for patients treated surgically for bone metastases in a retrospective patient cohort from a single institution. Moreover, subgroup analyses on patients treated with (A) endoprostheses or (B) osteosynthesis, as well as (C) upper limb and (D) lower limb metastases, were performed.
methodsAltogether, 303 cancer patients (mean age: 67.6 ± 11.1 years; 140 males (46.2%)) with bone metastases to the extremities, treated surgically between March 2000 and June 2018 at a single tertiary sarcoma centre, were retrospectively included. Median follow-up amounted to 6.3 (interquartile range (IQR): 2.3-21.8) months, with all patients followed-up for at least one year or until death. The 2013-SPRING model was applied to assess the prognostication accuracy at 3, 6 and 12 months. Models were validated with area under the curve receiver operator characteristic (AUC ROC; the higher the better), as well as Brier score.
resultsOf the 303 patients, 141 had been treated with osteosynthesis (46.5%), and the remaining 162 patients with endoprosthesis (53.5%). Sixty-five (21.5%) metastases were located in the upper limbs, and two hundred and thirty-eight (78.5%) in the lower limbs. Using the 2013-SPRING model for the entire cohort, the accuracy of risk of death prediction at 3, 6 and 12 months, determined by the AUC ROC, was 0.782 (95% CI: 0.729-0.843), 0.810 (95% CI: 0.763-0.858) and 0.802 (95% CI: 0.751-0.854), respectively. Corresponding Brier scores were 0.170, 0.178 and 0.169 at 3, 6 and 12 months. In the subgroup analyses, predictive accuracy of the 2013-SPRING model was likewise encouraging, albeit being slightly higher in the osteosynthesis subgroup as compared with the endoprosthesis subgroup, and also higher in the upper limb in comparison to the lower limb metastasis subgroup.
conclusionsThe current validation study of the 2013-SPRING model shows that this model is clinically relevant to use in an external cohort, also after stratification for surgical procedure and metastasis location.
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