Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35883100›Full record

ArticleMalaria journal2022

Population replacement gene drive characteristics for malaria elimination in a range of seasonal transmission settings: a modelling study.

Shirley Leung, Nikolai Windbichler, Edward A Wenger, Caitlin A Bever, Prashanth Selvaraj

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Malaria journal, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed.

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  6. ExploitingPathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025
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  18. Dual effector population modification gene-drive strains of the African malaria mosquitoes,Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023
    Article
  19. Review
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Shirley LeungInstitute for Disease Modeling, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA.
Nikolai WindbichlerDepartment of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, South Kensington, London, UK.
Edward A WengerInstitute for Disease Modeling, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA.
Caitlin A BeverInstitute for Disease Modeling, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA.
Prashanth SelvarajInstitute for Disease Modeling, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA. prashanth.selvaraj@gatesfoundation.org.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7565-2300

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundGene drives are a genetic engineering method where a suite of genes is inherited at higher than Mendelian rates and has been proposed as a promising new vector control strategy to reinvigorate the fight against malaria in sub-Saharan Africa.

methodsUsing an agent-based model of malaria transmission with vector genetics, the impacts of releasing population-replacement gene drive mosquitoes on malaria transmission are examined and the population replacement gene drive system parameters required to achieve local elimination within a spatially-resolved, seasonal Sahelian setting are quantified. The performance of two different gene drive systems-"classic" and "integral"-are evaluated. Various transmission regimes (low, moderate, and high-corresponding to annual entomological inoculation rates of 10, 30, and 80 infectious bites per person) and other simultaneous interventions, including deployment of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and passive healthcare-seeking, are also simulated.

resultsLocal elimination probabilities decreased with pre-existing population target site resistance frequency, increased with transmission-blocking effectiveness of the introduced antiparasitic gene and drive efficiency, and were context dependent with respect to fitness costs associated with the introduced gene. Of the four parameters, transmission-blocking effectiveness may be the most important to focus on for improvements to future gene drive strains because a single release of classic gene drive mosquitoes is likely to locally eliminate malaria in low to moderate transmission settings only when transmission-blocking effectiveness is very high (above ~ 80-90%). However, simultaneously deploying ITNs and releasing integral rather than classic gene drive mosquitoes significantly boosts elimination probabilities, such that elimination remains highly likely in low to moderate transmission regimes down to transmission-blocking effectiveness values as low as ~ 50% and in high transmission regimes with transmission-blocking effectiveness values above ~ 80-90%.

conclusionA single release of currently achievable population replacement gene drive mosquitoes, in combination with traditional forms of vector control, can likely locally eliminate malaria in low to moderate transmission regimes within the Sahel. In a high transmission regime, higher levels of transmission-blocking effectiveness than are currently available may be required.

Indexed as

CulicidaeGene Drive TechnologyInsecticidesMalariaAnimalsHumansMosquito ControlMosquito VectorsPopulation DynamicsSeasonsInsecticides

Identifiers

PMID35883100
PMCPMC9327287

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.