ArticlePreventive medicine2022
Excess deaths in the United States during the first year of COVID-19.
Article in Preventive medicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed, 36 citations in OpenAlex.
- Demystifying Quality Metrics and Unveiling the True Measure of Quality of Care in Nursing Homes: Mixed Effects Analysis.JMIR human factors · 2026Article
- Anticipated Protection Overcomes Vaccine Hesitancy and Mistrust Among Women Enrolled in the DC MACS/WIHS Combined Cohort Study.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2025Article
- Neoliberal Governance and Agribusiness Influence: Public Health Policymaking and the Risk to Meatpacking Workers During COVID-19.Sociology of health & illness · 2025Article
- Spatial and demographic heterogeneity in excess mortality in the United States, 2020-2023: a multimodel approach.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Excess and reduced work absence during COVID-19 in Poland: insights from cause-specific time-series models.Population health metrics · 2025Article
- Beyond death counts: how COVID-19 affected excess mortality and productive life-years lost across 28 European states, 2020-2023.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- All-Cause and Cause-Specific Excess Mortality During the First Two Years of the COVID-19 Pandemic in North-East of Iran: Reiterating the Significance of High-Quality Healthcare Systems.International journal of health policy and management · 2025Article
- Heterogeneity in Damages from A Pandemic.The review of economics and statistics · 2024Article
- Medical visits and mortality among dementia patients during the COVID-19 pandemic compared to rates predicted from 2019.BMC geriatrics · 2024Article
- Excess Death Rates by State During the COVID-19 Pandemic: United States, 2020‒2023.American journal of public health · 2024Article
- US State Restrictions and Excess COVID-19 Pandemic Deaths.JAMA health forum · 2024Article
- COVID-19 Pandemic as an Equalizer of the Health Returns of Educational Attainment for Black and White Americans.Journal of racial and ethnic health disparities · 2024Article
- Article
- Excess Mortality in the United States, 2020-21: County-level Estimates for Population Groups and Associations with Social Vulnerability.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Article
- The Evolution of Excess Deaths in the United States During the First 2 Years of the COVID-19 Pandemic.American journal of epidemiology · 2023Article
- A comprehensive analysis of all-cause and cause-specific excess deaths in 30 countries during 2020.European journal of epidemiology · 2023Article
- Monthly excess mortality across counties in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic, March 2020 to February 2022.Science advances · 2023Article
- Protein structure-based in-silico approaches to drug discovery: Guide to COVID-19 therapeutics.Molecular aspects of medicine · 2023Review
- Missing Americans: Early death in the United States-1933-2021.PNAS nexus · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
1 author at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Accurately determining the number of excess deaths caused by the COVID-19 pandemic is hard. The most important challenge is determining the counterfactual count of baseline deaths that would have occurred in its absence. Flexible estimation methods were used here to provide this baseline number and plausibility of the resulting estimates was evaluated by examining how changes between baseline and actual prior year deaths compared to historical year-over-year changes during the previous decade. Similar comparisons were used to examine the reasonableness of excess death estimates obtained in prior research. Total, group-specific and cause-specific excess deaths in the U.S. from March 2020 through February 2021 were calculated using publicly available data covering all deaths from March 2009 through December 2020 and provisional data for January 2021 and February 2021. The estimates indicate that there were 649,411 (95% CI: 600,133 to 698,689) excess deaths in the U.S. from 3/20-2/21, a 23% (95% CI: 21%-25%) increase over baseline, with 82.9% (95% CI: 77.0% - 89.7%) of these attributed directly to COVID-19. There were substantial differences across population groups and causes in the ratio of actual-to-baseline deaths, and in the contribution of COVID-19 to excess mortality. Prior research has probably often underestimated baseline mortality and so overstated both excess deaths and the percentage of them attributed to non-COVID-19 causes.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.