Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35872966›Full record

ReviewOxford open immunology2022

The past, current and future epidemiological dynamic of SARS-CoV-2.

François Balloux, Cedric Tan, Leo Swadling, Damien Richard, Charlotte Jenner, Mala Maini, Lucy van Dorp

Abstract readReview
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Review in Oxford open immunology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Trial
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  13. [Development of the INSABI educational strategy: a lesson learned from the COVID-19 epidemic].Revista medica del Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social · 2023
    Article
  14. Impact of vaccination on the presence and severity of symptoms in hospitalized patients with an infection of the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) of the SARS-CoV-2 (subvariant BA.1).Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases · 2023
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Can T Cells Abort SARS-CoV-2 and Other Viral Infections?International journal of molecular sciences · 2023
    Review
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  19. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

François BallouxUCL Genetics Institute, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1978-7715
Cedric TanUCL Genetics Institute, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK.
Leo SwadlingDivision of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London NW3 2PP, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0537-6715
Damien RichardUCL Genetics Institute, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK.
Charlotte JennerUCL Genetics Institute, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK.
Mala MainiDivision of Infection and Immunity, University College London, London NW3 2PP, UK.
Lucy van DorpUCL Genetics Institute, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6211-2310

Funding

MRF_ MRF-044-0001-RG-SWADL
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic, emerged in late 2019 in China, and rapidly spread throughout the world to reach all continents. As the virus expanded in its novel human host, viral lineages diversified through the accumulation of around two mutations a month on average. Different viral lineages have replaced each other since the start of the pandemic, with the most successful Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants of concern (VoCs) sequentially sweeping through the world to reach high global prevalence. Neither Alpha nor Delta was characterized by strong immune escape, with their success coming mainly from their higher transmissibility. Omicron is far more prone to immune evasion and spread primarily due to its increased ability to (re-)infect hosts with prior immunity. As host immunity reaches high levels globally through vaccination and prior infection, the epidemic is expected to transition from a pandemic regime to an endemic one where seasonality and waning host immunization are anticipated to become the primary forces shaping future SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics. In this review, we consider a body of evidence on the origins, host tropism, epidemiology, genomic and immunogenetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 including an assessment of other coronaviruses infecting humans. Considering what is known so far, we conclude by delineating scenarios for the future dynamic of SARS-CoV-2, ranging from the good-circulation of a fifth endemic 'common cold' coronavirus of potentially low virulence, the bad-a situation roughly comparable with seasonal flu, and the ugly-extensive diversification into serotypes with long-term high-level endemicity.

Indexed as

coronavirusesendemicityepidemic dynamichost rangephylogeneticsspecific immunity

Identifiers

PMID35872966
PMCPMC9278178

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.