ArticleInternational journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases2022
The impact of HIV and tuberculosis interventions on South African adult tuberculosis trends, 1990-2019: a mathematical modeling analysis.
Article in International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers.
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Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 29 citations in OpenAlex.
- Towards ending tuberculosis in South Africa: an uncertainty analysis of the programmes and factors most critical to future declines.Global health action · 2026Article
- Public opinion survey on heritable human genome editing in South Africa: a study protocol.Global health action · 2026Article
- Projected long-term impacts of US funding cuts on TB and HIV in South Africa and the TB Programme response.IJTLD open · 2026Article
- Advanced statistical approaches in tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment outcomes in Africa: a systematic review.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Review
- Investigating Gendered Implicit Bias Among Healthcare Workers in South Africa: Development and Piloting of an Implicit Association Test in a High Tuberculosis and HIV Setting.Research square · 2026Article
- Changing epidemiological patterns of tuberculosis in China from 1990 to 2023: trends and future projections of drug-resistant and HIV-associated tuberculosis.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Missed PrEP opportunities and vulnerability to HIV during rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis treatment in South Africa.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Clinical and Microbiological Characteristics Associated with Treatment Outcomes Among Rifampicin-Resistant Tuberculosis Patients in Limpopo Province.Infection and drug resistance · 2026Article
- Temporal trends in tuberculosis and time from enrolment in care to antiretroviral therapy initiation: A multicountry cohort study from Latin America.International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases · 2025Article
- The potential impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of tuberculosis interventions - a modelling exercise.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Occupational Syndemics in Farmworkers in the Cape Winelands, South Africa.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Article
- Enhancing tuberculosis (TB) case detection among hospitalized patients through lay health worker led screening: a before-and-after study in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Reassessment of public awareness and prevention strategies for HIV and COVID-19 co-infections through epidemic modeling.PloS one · 2025Article
- Treatment Outcomes for Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis Patients on Bedaquiline-Based Regimens in a Mostly Rural South Africa.Infection and drug resistance · 2025Article
- Predicting Treatment Outcomes in Patients with Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis and Human Immunodeficiency Virus Coinfection, Using Supervised Machine Learning Algorithm.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- For Tuberculosis, Not "To Screen or Not to Screen?" but "Who?" and "How?"Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2024Article
- A model-based approach to estimating the prevalence of disease combinations in South Africa.BMJ global health · 2024Article
- Prevalence and association of HIV and tuberculosis status in older adults in South Africa: an urgent need to escalate the scientific and political attention to aging and health.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- A pathway to strengthening open science: comments on the draftFrontiers in pharmacology · 2024Review
- Tuberculosis testing patterns in South Africa to identify groups that would benefit from increased investigation.Scientific reports · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectivesTo quantify the South African adult tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality attributable to HIV between 1990 and 2019 and to estimate the reduction in TB incidence due to directly observed therapy, antiretroviral therapy (ART), isoniazid preventive therapy, increased TB screening, and Xpert MTB/RIF.
methodsWe developed a dynamic TB transmission model for South Africa. A Bayesian approach was used to calibrate the model to South African-specific data sources. Counterfactual scenarios were simulated to estimate TB incidence and mortality attributable to HIV and the impact of interventions on TB incidence.
resultsBetween 1990 and 2019, 8.8 million (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.3-9.3 million) individuals developed TB, and 2.1 million (95% CI 2.0-2.2 million) died from TB. A total of 55% and 69% of TB cases and mortality were due to HIV, respectively. Overall, TB screening and ART substantially reduced TB incidence by 28.2% (95% CI 26.4-29.8%) and 20.0% (95% CI 19.2-20.7%), respectively, in 2019; other interventions had minor impacts.
conclusionHIV has dramatically increased TB incidence and mortality in South Africa. The provision of ART and intensification of TB screening explained most recent declines in TB incidence.
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