ArticleBMC infectious diseases2022
Incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis under the regular COVID-19 epidemic prevention and control in China.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed, 8 citations in OpenAlex.
- Impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on infectious disease patterns in Yunnan Province across the COVID-19 pandemic phases.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Exploring the influence of environmental indicators and forecasting influenza incidence using ARIMAX models.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on reported tuberculosis incidence and mortality in China: An interrupted time series analysis.Journal of global health · 2023Article
- Application of protection motivation theory and cultural tightness-looseness for predicting individuals' compliance with the government's recommended preventive measures during regular prevention and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in China.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
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5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has driven public health intervention strategies, including keeping social distance, wearing masks in crowded places, and having good health habits, to prevent the transmission of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). However, it is unknown whether the use of these intervention strategies influences morbidity in other human infectious diseases, such as tuberculosis.
methodsIn this study, three prediction models were constructed to compare variations in PTB incidences after January 2020 without or with intervention includes strict and regular interventions, when the COVID-19 outbreak began in China. The non-interventional model was developed with an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model that was trained with the monthly incidence of PTB in China from January 2005 to December 2019. The interventional model was established using an ARIMA model with a continuing intervention function that was trained with the monthly PTB incidence in China from January 2020 to December 2020.
resultsStarting with the assumption that no COVID-19 outbreak had occurred in China, PTB incidence was predicted, and then the actual incidence was compared with the predicted incidence. A remarkable overall decline in PTB incidence from January 2020 to December 2020 was observed, which was likely due to the potential influence of intervention policies for COVID-19. If the same intervention strategy is applied for the next 2 years, the monthly PTB incidence would reduce on average by about 1.03 per 100,000 people each month compared with the incidence predicted by the non-interventional model. The annual incidence estimated 59.15 under regular intervention per 100,000 in 2021, and the value would decline to 50.65 with strict interventions.
conclusionsOur models quantified the potential knock-on effect on PTB incidence of the intervention strategy used to control the transmission of COVID-19 in China. Combined with the feasibility of the strategies, these results suggested that continuous regular interventions would play important roles in the future prevention and control of PTB.
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