ArticleScientific reports2022
Optimal control for a SIR epidemic model with limited quarantine.
Article in Scientific reports, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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3 citing papers in PubMed, 30 citations in OpenAlex.
- Solving nonlinear and complex optimal control problems via multi-task artificial neural networks.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- From node to network: weaving a global perspective on efficacy and costs of non-pharmaceutical interventions.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Three-layer model for the control of epidemic infection over multiple social networks.SN applied sciences · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Social distance, quarantines and total lock-downs are non-pharmaceutical interventions that policymakers have used to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 virus. However, these measures could be harmful to societies in terms of social and economic costs, and they can be maintained only for a short period of time. Here we investigate the optimal strategies that minimize the impact of an epidemic, by studying the conditions for an optimal control of a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model with a limitation on the total duration of the quarantine. The control is done by means of the reproduction number [Formula: see text], i.e., the number of secondary infections produced by a primary infection, which can be arbitrarily varied in time over a quarantine period T to account for external interventions. We also assume that the most strict quarantine (lower bound of [Formula: see text]) cannot last for a period longer than a value [Formula: see text]. The aim is to minimize the cumulative number of ever-infected individuals (recovered) and the socioeconomic cost of interventions in the long term, by finding the optimal way to vary [Formula: see text]. We show that the optimal solution is a single bang-bang, i.e., the strict quarantine is turned on only once, and is turned off after the maximum allowed time [Formula: see text]. Besides, we calculate the optimal time to begin and end the strict quarantine, which depends on T, [Formula: see text] and the initial conditions. We provide rigorous proofs of these results and check that are in perfect agreement with numerical computations.
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