ArticleNPJ breast cancer2022
PREDICT underestimates survival of patients with HER2-positive early-stage breast cancer.
Article in NPJ breast cancer, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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The trial behind it
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Validation of PREDICT tool v2.2 in patients with early-stage breast cancer enrolled in the GIM and MIG trials.ESMO open · 2026Article
- Clinical characteristics, metastasis patterns, and treatment outcomes of HER2-low breast cancer.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Dose-dense anthracycline- and taxane-based chemotherapy remains the preferred treatment for selected patients with high-risk early breast cancer.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2025Article
- Benefit from dose-dense adjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer: subgroup analyses from the randomised phase 3 PANTHER trial.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2025Article
- Insights into the performance of PREDICT tool in a large Mainland Chinese breast cancer cohort: a comparative analysis of versions 3.0 and 2.2.The oncologist · 2024Article
- An updated PREDICT breast cancer prognostic model including the benefits and harms of radiotherapy.NPJ breast cancer · 2024Article
- A Comparison between the Online Prognostic Tool PREDICT and myBeST for Women with Breast Cancer in Malaysia.Cancers · 2023Article
- Matters Arising: PREDICT underestimates survival of patients with HER2-positive early-stage breast cancer.NPJ breast cancer · 2023Article
- Reply to: PREDICT underestimates survival of patients with HER2-positive early-stage breast cancer.NPJ breast cancer · 2023Article
- myBeST-A Web-Based Survival Prognostic Tool for Women with Breast Cancer in Malaysia: Development Process and Preliminary Validation Study.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
20 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The prognostic performance of PREDICT in patients with HER2-positive early breast cancer (EBC) treated in the modern era with effective chemotherapy and anti-HER2 targeted therapies is unclear. Therefore, we investigated its prognostic performance using data extracted from ALTTO, a phase III trial evaluating adjuvant lapatinib ± trastuzumab vs. trastuzumab alone in patients with HER2-positive EBC. Our analysis included 2794 patients. After a median follow-up of 6.0 years (IQR, 5.8-6.7), 182 deaths were observed. Overall, PREDICT underestimated 5-year OS by 6.7% (95% CI, 5.8-7.6): observed 5-year OS was 94.7% vs. predicted 88.0%. The underestimation was consistent across all subgroups, including those according to the type of anti HER2-therapy. The highest absolute differences were observed for patients with hormone receptor negative-disease, nodal involvement, and large tumor size (13.0%, 15.8%, and 15.3%, respectively). AUC under the ROC curve was 73.7% (95% CI 69.7-77.8) in the overall population, ranging between 61.7% and 77.7% across the analyzed subgroups. In conclusion, our analysis showed that PREDICT highly underestimated OS in HER2-positive EBC. Hence, it should be used with caution to give prognostic estimation to HER2-positive EBC patients treated in the modern era with effective chemotherapy and anti-HER2 targeted therapies.
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