ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2022
The durability of natural infection and vaccine-induced immunity against future infection by SARS-CoV-2.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 55 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
55 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Risk assessment and antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 in healthcare workers.Frontiers in public health · 2023Pooled it
- HBsAg-tagged tumour vaccine system eliminates solid tumours through virus-specific memory T cells.Nature biomedical engineering · 2026Article
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- Seasonal forcing and waning immunity drive the sub-annual periodicity of the COVID-19 epidemic.PLoS pathogens · 2026Article
- Short-Term Change in IgG Antibody Elicited by Omicron BA.5 Infection and Inhaled Ad5-nCoV Vaccine Among Healthcare Workers.Immunity, inflammation and disease · 2026Article
- Immunoinformatic-guided design of a polo-like kinase 1 (PLK1)-targeted multi-epitope vaccine with preliminaryFrontiers in bioinformatics · 2026Article
- Natural and Vaccine-Induced Immunity in the Post-Pandemic Era: Convergence, Divergence, and Unfinished Challenges.Vaccines · 2025Article
- The impact of statistical adjustment for assay performance on inferences from SARS-CoV-2 serological surveillance studies.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- On campus dormitories as viral transmission sinks: Phylodynamic insights into student housing networks during the COVID-19 pandemic.PLoS pathogens · 2025Article
- Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages shifted antibody-mediated protection curves.iScience · 2025Article
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- Review
- Barriers to initial COVID-19 booster among US adults who completed a primary vaccine series in the CHASING COVID cohort, September 2021-October 2022.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- A longitudinal study depicting persistence of COVID-19 antibodies after half a year using chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay among healthcare workers and frontline workers in Mumbai, India's largest metropoli.Journal of family medicine and primary care · 2025Article
- Optimal Annual COVID-19 Vaccine Boosting Dates Following Previous Booster Vaccination or Breakthrough Infection.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2025Article
- The immunological impact of revaccination in a hybrid-immune world.Frontiers in immunology · 2025Review
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- Healthcare workers' willingness to receive COVID-19 booster dose and associated factors in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2024Article
- Longitudinal analysis of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody durability in Puerto Rico.Scientific reports · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The durability of vaccine-mediated immunity to SARS-CoV-2, the durations to breakthrough infection, and the optimal timings of booster vaccination are crucial knowledge for pandemic response. Here, we applied comparative evolutionary analyses to estimate the durability of immunity and the likelihood of breakthrough infections over time following vaccination by BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca), and Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson & Johnson/Janssen). We evaluated anti-Spike (S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody levels elicited by each vaccine relative to natural infection. We estimated typical trajectories of waning and corresponding infection probabilities, providing the distribution of times to breakthrough infection for each vaccine under endemic conditions. Peak antibody levels elicited by messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2 exceeded that of natural infection and are expected to typically yield more durable protection against breakthrough infections (median 29.6 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 10.9 mo to 7.9 y) than natural infection (median 21.5 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 3.5 mo to 7.1 y). Relative to mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2, viral vector vaccines ChAdOx1 and Ad26.COV2.S exhibit similar peak anti-S IgG antibody responses to that from natural infection and are projected to yield lower, shorter-term protection against breakthrough infection (median 22.4 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 4.3 mo to 7.2 y; and median 20.5 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 2.6 mo to 7.0 y; respectively). These results leverage the tools from evolutionary biology to provide a quantitative basis for otherwise unknown parameters that are fundamental to public health policy decision-making.
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