ArticleBMC gastroenterology2022
Risk factors and predictive nomograms for early death of patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: a large retrospective study based on the SEER database.
Article in BMC gastroenterology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 9 papers.
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Who cites it
9 citing papers in PubMed.
- Construction of webZhong nan da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Central South University. Medical sciences · 2023Trial
- Risk factors and predictive nomograms for early mortality in patients with thyroid cancer lung metastasis based on the SEER database and a Chinese population study.Gland surgery · 2025Article
- Prediction of survival and analysis of prognostic factors for patients with AFP negative hepatocellular carcinoma: a population-based study.BMC gastroenterology · 2024Article
- Systemic treatment in patients with Child-Pugh B liver dysfunction and advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.Cancer medicine · 2023Review
- Construction and validation of a survival prognostic model for stage III hepatocellular carcinoma: a real-world, multicenter clinical study.BMC gastroenterology · 2023Article
- A predictive model for early death in elderly colorectal cancer patients: a population-based study.Frontiers in oncology · 2023Article
- Prognostic factors and predictive nomogram models for early death in elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a population-based study.Frontiers in molecular biosciences · 2023Article
- Adding nutritional status to the original BCLC stage improves mortality prediction for hepatocellular carcinoma patients in HBV-endemic regions.American journal of cancer research · 2023Article
- Multilayered insights: a machine learning approach for personalized prognostic assessment in hepatocellular carcinoma.Frontiers in oncology · 2023Article
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10 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a kind of tumor with high invasiveness, and patients with advanced HCC have a higher risk of early death. The aim of the present study was to identify the risk factors of early death in patients with advanced HCC and establish predictive nomograms.
methodsDeath that occurred within 3 months of initial diagnosis is defined as early death. Patients diagnosed with stage IV HCC between 2010 and 2015 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database for model establishment and verification. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify the risk factors. Predictive nomograms were constructed and an internal validation was performed. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to verify the true clinical application value of the models.
resultsOf 6603 patients (57% age > 60, 81% male, 70% white, 46% married), 21% and 79% had stage IVA and IVB, respectively. On the multivariable analyses, risk factors for early deaths in patients with stage IVA were age, tumor size, histological grade, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), fibrosis score, tumor stage (T stage), surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy, and that in stage IVB were age, histological grade, AFP, T stage, node stage (N stage), bone metastasis, lung metastasis, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy. The areas under the curves (AUCs) were 0.830 (95% CI 0.809-0.851) and 0.789 (95% CI 0.768-0.810) in stage IVA and IVB, respectively. Nomograms comprising risk factors with the concordance indexes (C-indexes) were 0.820 (95% CI 0.799-0.841) in stage IVA and 0.785 (95% CI 0.764-0.0.806) in stage IVB for internal validation (Bootstrapping, 1000re-samplings). The calibration plots of the nomograms show that the predicted early death was consistent with the actual value. The results of the DCA analysis show that the nomograms had a good clinical application.
conclusionThe nomograms can be beneficial for clinicians in identifying the risk factors for early death of patients with advanced HCC and predicting the probability of early death, so as to allow for individualized treatment plans to be accurately selected.
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