ArticleNature communications2022
Drought-Induced Civil Conflict Among the Ancient Maya.
Article in Nature communications, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
What it found
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 56 citations in OpenAlex.
- Drought facilitated the westward expansion of the Mongol Empire in the 1230s.Fundamental research · 2026Article
- Modeling the rise and demise of Classic Maya cities: Climate, conflict, and economies of scale.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Classic Maya response to multiyear seasonal droughts in Northwest Yucatán, Mexico.Science advances · 2025Article
- Suborbital- and millennial-scale monsoon variability during Pleistocene interglacials.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- All-day cloud property and occurrence probability dataset based on satellite remote sensing data.Scientific data · 2025Article
- Recent centennial drought on the Tibetan Plateau is outstanding within the past 3500 years.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Droughts and conflicts during the late Roman period.Climatic change · 2025Article
- Violence trends in the ancient Middle East between 12,000 and 400 BCE.Nature human behaviour · 2023Article
- Catastrophic climate change and the collapse of human societies.National science review · 2023Article
- Decline in seasonal predictability potentially destabilized Classic Maya societies.Communications earth & environment · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
29 authors at 18 institutions in 7 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The influence of climate change on civil conflict and societal instability in the premodern world is a subject of much debate, in part because of the limited temporal or disciplinary scope of case studies. We present a transdisciplinary case study that combines archeological, historical, and paleoclimate datasets to explore the dynamic, shifting relationships among climate change, civil conflict, and political collapse at Mayapan, the largest Postclassic Maya capital of the Yucatán Peninsula in the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries CE. Multiple data sources indicate that civil conflict increased significantly and generalized linear modeling correlates strife in the city with drought conditions between 1400 and 1450 cal. CE. We argue that prolonged drought escalated rival factional tensions, but subsequent adaptations reveal regional-scale resiliency, ensuring that Maya political and economic structures endured until European contact in the early sixteenth century CE.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.