Pathways to suicide or collections of vicious cycles? Understanding the complexity of suicide through causal mapping.

Suicide is the second leading cause of death among youth ages 10-19 in the USA. While suicide has long been recognized as a multifactorial issue, there is limited understanding regarding the complexities linking adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) to suicide ideation, attempt, and fatality among youth. In this paper, we develop a map of these complex linkages to provide a decision support tool regarding key issues in policymaking and intervention design, such as identifying multiple feedback loops (e.g., involving intergenerational effects) or comprehensively examining the rippling effects of an intervention. We use the methodology of systems mapping to structure the complex interrelationships of suicide and ACEs based on the perceptions of fifteen subject matter experts. Specifically, systems mapping allows us to gain insight into the feedback loops and potential emergent properties of ACEs and youth suicide. We describe our methodology and the results of fifteen one-on-one interviews, which are transformed into individual maps that are then aggregated and simplified to produce our final causal map. Our map is the largest to date on ACEs and suicide among youth, totaling 361 concepts and 946 interrelationships. Using a previously developed open-source software to navigate the map, we are able to explore how trauma may be perpetuated through familial, social, and historical concepts. In particular, we identify connections and pathways between ACEs and youth suicide that have not been identified in prior research, and which are of particular interest for youth suicide prevention efforts.