Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35843930›Full record

Observational studyBMC medical informatics and decision making2022

Predicting the outcome for COVID-19 patients by applying time series classification to electronic health records.

Davi Silva Rodrigues, Ana Catharina S Nastri, Marcello M Magri, Maura Salaroli de Oliveira, Ester C Sabino, Pedro H M F Figueiredo, Anna S Levin, Maristela P Freire, Leila S Harima, Fátima L S Nunes and 2 more

Open access · goldAbstract readObservational Study
In one paragraph

Observational study in BMC medical informatics and decision making, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
1.7field-weighted citation impact, top 14% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed, 12 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Davi Silva RodriguesLaboratory of Computer Applications for Health Care, School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil. davisilvarodrigues@gmail.com.
Ana Catharina S NastriDivision of Infectious Diseases, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Marcello M MagriDivision of Infectious Diseases, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Maura Salaroli de OliveiraDepartment of Infection Control, Hospital das Clínicas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Ester C SabinoDivision of Infectious Diseases, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Pedro H M F FigueiredoNúcleo de Vigilância Epidemiológica, Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Anna S LevinDivision of Infectious Diseases, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Maristela P FreireDepartment of Infection Control, Hospital das Clínicas, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Leila S HarimaClinical Director's Office, Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Fátima L S NunesLaboratory of Computer Applications for Health Care, School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
João Eduardo FerreiraComputer Science Department, Institute of Mathematics and Statistics, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
HCFMUSP COVID-19 Study Group
Universidade de São Paulo · BRHospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo · BR

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCOVID-19 caused more than 622 thousand deaths in Brazil. The infection can be asymptomatic and cause mild symptoms, but it also can evolve into a severe disease and lead to death. It is difficult to predict which patients will develop severe disease. There are, in the literature, machine learning models capable of assisting diagnose and predicting outcomes for several diseases, but usually these models require laboratory tests and/or imaging.

methodsWe conducted a observational cohort study that evaluated vital signs and measurements from patients who were admitted to Hospital das Clínicas (São Paulo, Brazil) between March 2020 and October 2021 due to COVID-19. The data was then represented as univariate and multivariate time series, that were used to train and test machine learning models capable of predicting a patient's outcome.

resultsTime series-based machine learning models are capable of predicting a COVID-19 patient's outcome with up to 96% general accuracy and 81% accuracy considering only the first hospitalization day. The models can reach up to 99% sensitivity (discharge prediction) and up to 91% specificity (death prediction).

conclusionsResults indicate that time series-based machine learning models combined with easily obtainable data can predict COVID-19 outcomes and support clinical decisions. With further research, these models can potentially help doctors diagnose other diseases.

Indexed as

COVID-19BrazilElectronic Health RecordsHospitalizationHumansRetrospective StudiesTime FactorsCOVID-19Outcome predictionTime series classificationVital signs

Identifiers

PMID35843930
PMCPMC9288836
OpenAlexW4285677173

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.