ArticleBMC public health2022
Mathematical modelling of vaccination rollout and NPIs lifting on COVID-19 transmission with VOC: a case study in Toronto, Canada.
Article in BMC public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 21 citations in OpenAlex.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Deceleration and rebound of hemagglutinin divergence in influenza B/Victoria across COVID-19 NPI phases (2016-2024).Frontiers in microbiology · 2026Article
- Hotspot model shows how location-based superspreading accelerates and reshapes epidemics.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Epidemiological Shifts in Children Respiratory Pathogens in Shenzhen, China: A Comparative Analysis Before and After the Relaxation of COVID-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2025Article
- Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Review
- Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Retrospective analysis of equity-based optimization for COVID-19 vaccine allocation.PNAS nexus · 2023Article
- Retrospective Analysis of Equity-Based Optimization for COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in Thailand.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2023Article
- Assessing the mechanism of citywide test-trace-isolate Zero-COVID policy and exit strategy of COVID-19 pandemic.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
10 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundSince December 2020, public health agencies have implemented a variety of vaccination strategies to curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2, along with pre-existing Nonpharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs). Initial strategies focused on vaccinating the elderly to prevent hospitalizations and deaths, but with vaccines becoming available to the broader population, it became important to determine the optimal strategy to enable the safe lifting of NPIs while avoiding virus resurgence.
methodsWe extended the classic deterministic SIR compartmental disease-transmission model to simulate the lifting of NPIs under different vaccine rollout scenarios. Using case and vaccination data from Toronto, Canada between December 28, 2020, and May 19, 2021, we estimated transmission throughout past stages of NPI escalation/relaxation to compare the impact of lifting NPIs on different dates on cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, given varying degrees of vaccine coverages by 20-year age groups, accounting for waning immunity.
resultsWe found that, once coverage among the elderly is high enough (80% with at least one dose), the main age groups to target are 20-39 and 40-59 years, wherein first-dose coverage of at least 70% by mid-June 2021 is needed to minimize the possibility of resurgence if NPIs are to be lifted in the summer. While a resurgence was observed for every scenario of NPI lifting, we also found that under an optimistic vaccination coverage (70% coverage by mid-June, along with postponing reopening from August 2021 to September 2021) can reduce case counts and severe outcomes by roughly 57% by December 31, 2021.
conclusionsOur results suggest that focusing the vaccination strategy on the working-age population can curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2. However, even with high vaccination coverage in adults, increasing contacts and easing protective personal behaviours is not advisable since a resurgence is expected to occur, especially with an earlier reopening.
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