ArticleTransactions of the Indian National Academy of Engineering : an international journal of engineering and technology2021
Universal Epidemic Curve for COVID-19 and Its Usage for Forecasting.
Article in Transactions of the Indian National Academy of Engineering : an international journal of engineering and technology, 2021. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed, 10 citations in OpenAlex.
- Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 pandemic in India using Caputo-Fabrizio fractional derivative.Computers in biology and medicine · 2022Article
- Emergence of universality in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2021Article
- A focus on the spread of the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in India.The Indian journal of medical research · 2021Article
- Analysis of Second Wave of COVID-19 in Different Countries.Transactions of the Indian National Academy of Engineering : an international journal of engineering and technology · 2021Article
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3 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
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Abstract
We construct a universal epidemic curve for COVID-19 using the epidemic curves of eight nations that have reached saturation for the first phase and then fit an eight-degree polynomial that passes through the universal curve. We take India's epidemic curve up to January 1, 2021 and match it with the universal curve by minimizing square-root error between the model prediction and actual value. The constructed curve has been used to forecast epidemic evolution up to February 25, 2021. The predictions of our model and those of supermodel for India (Agrawal et al. in Indian J Med Res, 2020; Vidyasagar et al. in https://www.iith.ac.in/~m_vidyasagar/arXiv/Super-Model.pdf, 2020) are reasonably close to each other considering the uncertainties in data fitting.
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