ArticleBMC public health2022
Global trends in total fertility rate and its relation to national wealth, life expectancy and female education.
Article in BMC public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 43 papers.
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Who cites it
43 citing papers in PubMed.
- Barriers and facilitators to potential nationwide implementation of fertility health awareness strategies in young married couples in Singapore: an implementation study.BMC health services research · 2025Trial
- Identifying Key Determinants of Fertility Among Women in Bangladesh Using Machine Learning Tools: Evidence From the BDHS 2022.Health science reports · 2026Article
- Temporal trends and future projections of fertility and birth rates in Georgia: a retrospective observational study.BMJ open · 2026Observational
- Factors Affecting Decision-Making to Have Children in Iran: A Qualitative Study.Health science reports · 2026Article
- Uptake of family planning methods among adults presenting with genital ulcers at community posts and public outpatient health facilities in central Uganda.Contraception and reproductive medicine · 2026Article
- Differential Effects of Lifestyle Indicators on Cognitive Functioning Across Healthy, Dementia, Parkinson's Disease, and Stroke Groups.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Article
- Pregnancy and Assisted Reproductive Outcomes in Women with Systemic Lupus Erythematosus, Sjögren Syndrome and Antiphospholipid Syndrome: An Umbrella Review.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Review
- The past, present and future of uterine fibroids.Facts, views & vision in ObGyn · 2026Article
- Sex differences in the global burden of autism spectrum disorders: An analysis based on GBD 2021 data.Zhong nan da xue xue bao. Yi xue ban = Journal of Central South University. Medical sciences · 2026Article
- Converging fertility trajectories across developed countries, 2010-2020: implications for public health policy.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Explainable Artificial Intelligence for Rehospitalization and Financial Burden of Fertile Women in Orthopedic Care.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Heterogeneous associations of health expenditure, environmental pollution, and economic growth on life expectancy in BRICS economies.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Socioeconomic, institutional, environmental, and demographic determinants of population health in 90 developing countries: panel data evidence.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Household wealth and timing of first birth among highly educated women in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from survey-adjusted survival analysis.Frontiers in reproductive health · 2026Article
- Bayesian hierarchical modeling of Mpox in the African region (2022-2024): Addressing zero-inflation and spatial autocorrelation.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Revitalising Aging Oocytes: Echinacoside Restores Mitochondrial Function and Cellular Homeostasis Through Targeting GJA1/SIRT1 Pathway.Cell proliferation · 2025Article
- On a microdemographic framework for decomposing contemporary fertility dynamics.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Aging, longevity, and healthy aging: the public health approach.Aging clinical and experimental research · 2025Review
- An inevitably ageing world: analysis on the evolutionary pattern of age structure in 200 countries.Royal Society open science · 2025Article
- Spatio-temporal modelling of extreme low birth rates in U.S. counties.BMC public health · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesAlong with the development of the times and progress of the society, the total fertility rate (TFR) markedly changed in each country. Therefore, it is critical to describe the trend of TFR and explore its influencing factors. However, previous studies did not consider the time lag and cumulative effect in the associations between the influencing factors and TFR. Thus, our study aimed to analyze the associations from a new dimension.
methodsThe study was employed using national-level data from the World Bank and United Nations Development Programme. Distributed lag non-linear models with 5-year lag were used to examine the independent associations between the relevant factors and TFR.
resultsThe cumulative exposure-TFR curves were inverted U-shaped for log gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and life expectancy at birth, while the cumulative exposure-response curves were approximately linear for female expected years of schooling and human development index (HDI). However, it is worth noting that in the developed regions, TFR increased slightly with the high level of GDP per capita, female expected years of schooling and HDI.
conclusionsNowadays, with the growth of GDP per capita, life expectancy at birth, female expected years of schooling and HDI, TFR are on a drastic downward trend in most regions. Besides, with the development of society, when levels of the factors continued to increase, TFR also showed a slight rebound. Therefore, governments, especially those in developing countries, should take measures to stimulate fertility and deal with a series of problems caused by declining TFR.
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