ArticleBMC medical research methodology2022
Does group-based trajectory modeling estimate spurious trajectories?
Article in BMC medical research methodology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 57 papers.
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Who cites it
57 citing papers in PubMed.
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- Trajectories of change in prolonged exposure for primary care: Who most likely benefits?Psychological trauma : theory, research, practice and policy · 2025Trial
- Cocaine craving and use during pharmacotherapy trials for cocaine use disorder: A multi-trajectory analysis.Drug and alcohol dependence · 2025Trial
- Machine learning-derived serum carbon dioxide trajectories in predicting prognosis of patients with acute aortic dissection.Medical gas research · 2027Article
- Associations of Green Space and Air Pollution Mixture with Heterogeneous Biological Aging Patterns.Environmental health perspectives · 2026Article
- The Nonlinear Interaction Effects of Negative Emotions and Self-Control on Developmental Trajectories of Early Adolescents' Internalizing Problems.Journal of youth and adolescence · 2026Article
- Identification, validation, and prediction of longitudinal recovery phenotypes in degenerative cervical myelopathy: analysis of prospective cohorts and a randomised controlled trial.EClinicalMedicine · 2026Article
- Dynamic Lactate-to-Albumin Ratio Trajectories and Outcomes in Sepsis-Associated Acute Kidney Injury: Evidence From MIMIC-IV and a Multicenter Chinese Cohort.JMIR medical informatics · 2026Observational
- When Cumulative Frailty Includes Future CVD Events: Time-Order Concerns in CKM Syndrome Research.Geriatrics & gerontology international · 2026Article
- Trajectories of social transition among trans children and adolescents in Victoria, Australia: a longitudinal descriptive study.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2026Article
- Prenatal Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution and Fetal Growth Trajectories in Wuhan, China.Environmental health perspectives · 2026Article
- Relative strengths in daily living skills among autistic individuals and individuals with related developmental conditions who have co-occurring intellectual disability.Journal of child psychology and psychiatry, and allied disciplines · 2026Article
- Letter to the Editor Regarding "Association of Frailty and Its Trajectories With the Risk of Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Syndrome Progression: A Longitudinal Cohort Study".Geriatrics & gerontology international · 2026Article
- Offending Trajectories of Men With Adult-Onset Sexual Offending Histories.Sexual abuse : a journal of research and treatment · 2026Article
- Observational
- Trajectories of antidepressant dispensing among privately insured transgender people in the United States.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Joint trajectories of burden and benefits of caregiving among informal caregivers of older adults with functional limitations: a longitudinal study.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- PCSK9 inhibitors patterns of use in France from nationwide repeated cross-sectional and cohort studies.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- High-Frequency Functional Trajectories Predict Depressive Worsening in Singapore's Community-Dwelling Older Adults.Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundGroup-based trajectory modelling (GBTM) is increasingly used to identify subgroups of individuals with similar patterns. In this paper, we use simulated and real-life data to illustrate that GBTM is susceptible to generating spurious findings in some circumstances.
methodsSix plausible scenarios, two of which mimicked published analyses, were simulated. Models with 1 to 10 trajectory subgroups were estimated and the model that minimized the Bayes criterion was selected. For each scenario, we assessed whether the method identified the correct number of trajectories, the correct shapes of the trajectories, and the mean number of participants of each trajectory subgroup. The performance of the average posterior probabilities, relative entropy and mismatch criteria to assess classification adequacy were compared.
resultsAmong the six scenarios, the correct number of trajectories was identified in two, the correct shapes in four and the mean number of participants of each trajectory subgroup in only one. Relative entropy and mismatch outperformed the average posterior probability in detecting spurious trajectories.
conclusionResearchers should be aware that GBTM can generate spurious findings, especially when the average posterior probability is used as the sole criterion to evaluate model fit. Several model adequacy criteria should be used to assess classification adequacy.
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