Cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccination in Poland.

Introduction: The aim of our study was to assess the potential value of the Comirnaty vaccine (BNT162b2) in Poland. A model was used to estimate patient events, direct medical costs, utilities, and cost-effectiveness for 1 year with and without implementation of the vaccine. Material and methods: The Markov model with 1-week cycles was used to estimate patient events, direct medical costs, utilities, and cost-effectiveness for 1 year with and without implementing the Comirnaty vaccine in Poland. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained vs. no vaccine was calculated for the general population and selected age-groups. All costs are reported in PLN (average exchange rate in 2020: 1 EUR = 4.44 PLN). Results: In the base case analysis the incremental cost per QALY gained associated with vaccinating the whole population is 6249 PLN. For individuals aged 60-69 years and > 80 years vaccination is less costly and more effective than no vaccination. The incremental cost per QALY gained when vaccinating individuals aged 40-49 and 30-39 years is 28,135 PLN and 67,823 PLN, respectively. In the general population and in younger subpopulations the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is most sensitive to the vaccine effectiveness, vaccine price, and SARS-CoV-2 infection rates. Conclusions: When prioritization is required due to supply constraints, vaccination of the elderly is justified because it gives the highest number of QALY gained and generates savings for the health care system. Continual updates of the model concerning vaccine real-life effectiveness and epidemic course are required to refine the prioritisation scheme in the future.