Seasonal weather effects on offspring survival differ between reproductive stages in a long-lived neotropical seabird.

Weather conditions can profoundly affect avian reproduction. It is known that weather conditions prior to and after the onset of reproduction can affect the breeding success of birds. However, little is known about how seasonal weather variability can affect birds' breeding performance, particularly for species with a slow pace of life. Long-term studies are key to understanding how weather variability can affect a population's dynamics, especially when extreme weather events are expected to increase with climate change. Using a 32-year population study of the Blue-footed booby (Sula nebouxii) in Mexico, we show that seasonal variation in weather conditions, predominantly during the incubation stage, affects offspring survival and body condition at independence. During most of the incubation period, warm sea surface temperatures were correlated with low hatching success, while rainfall in the middle of the incubation stage was correlated with high fledging success. In addition, chicks from nests that experienced warm sea surface temperatures from the pre-laying stage to near-fledging had lower body condition at 70 days of age. Finally, we show that variable annual SST conditions before and during the incubation stage can impair breeding performance. Our results provide insight into how seasonal and interannual weather variation during key reproductive stages can affect hatching success, fledging success, and fledgling body condition in a long-lived neotropical seabird.