Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35821170›Full record

ArticleInjury epidemiology2022

Estimating the health burden of road traffic injuries in Malawi using an individual-based model.

Robert Manning Smith, Valentina Cambiano, Tim Colbourn, Joseph H Collins, Matthew Graham, Britta Jewell, Ines Li Lin, Tara D Mangal, Gerald Manthalu, Joseph Mfutso-Bengo and 10 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Injury epidemiology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Epidemiology and Treatment of Distal Radius Fractures at Four Public Hospitals in Malawi.Journal of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons. Global research & reviews · 2024
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

20 authors.

Robert Manning SmithUniversity College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK. robbie.smith@ucl.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9457-2821
Valentina CambianoUniversity College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK.
Tim ColbournUniversity College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK.
Joseph H CollinsUniversity College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK.
Matthew GrahamUniversity College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK.
Britta JewellImperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London, SW7 2AZ, UK.
Ines Li LinUniversity College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK.
Tara D MangalImperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London, SW7 2AZ, UK.
Gerald ManthaluMinistry of Health and Population, P.O. Box 30377, Lilongwe 3, Malawi.
Joseph Mfutso-BengoKamuzu University of Health Sciences, Mahatma Gandhi, 52X8+782, Blantyre, Malawi.
Emmanuel MnjoweUniversity of Malawi, J86P+8V, Zomba, Malawi.
Sakshi MohanUniversity of York, York, YO10 5DD, UK.
Wingston Ng'ambiUniversity of Malawi, J86P+8V, Zomba, Malawi.
Andrew N PhillipsUniversity College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK.
Paul RevillUniversity of York, York, YO10 5DD, UK.
Bingling SheImperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London, SW7 2AZ, UK.
Mads SundetREMEDY-Center for treatment of Rheumatic and Musculoskeletal Diseases, Diakonhjemmet Hospital, Oslo, Norway.
Asif TamuriUniversity College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK.
Pakwanja D TweaMinistry of Health and Population, P.O. Box 30377, Lilongwe 3, Malawi.
Timothy B HalletImperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London, SW7 2AZ, UK.

Funding

Global Challenges Research Fund MR/P028004/1Medical Research Council MR/P028004/1Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundRoad traffic injuries are a significant cause of death and disability globally. However, in some countries the exact health burden caused by road traffic injuries is unknown. In Malawi, there is no central reporting mechanism for road traffic injuries and so the exact extent of the health burden caused by road traffic injuries is hard to determine. A limited number of models predict the incidence of mortality due to road traffic injury in Malawi. These estimates vary greatly, owing to differences in assumptions, and so the health burden caused on the population by road traffic injuries remains unclear.

methodsWe use an individual-based model and combine an epidemiological model of road traffic injuries with a health seeking behaviour and health system model. We provide a detailed representation of road traffic injuries in Malawi, from the onset of the injury through to the final health outcome. We also investigate the effects of an assumption made by other models that multiple injuries do not contribute to health burden caused by road accidents.

resultsOur model estimates an overall average incidence of mortality between 23.5 and 29.8 per 100,000 person years due to road traffic injuries and an average of 180,000 to 225,000 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per year between 2010 and 2020 in an estimated average population size of 1,364,000 over the 10-year period. Our estimated incidence of mortality falls within the range of other estimates currently available for Malawi, whereas our estimated number of DALYs is greater than the only other estimate available for Malawi, the GBD estimate predicting and average of 126,200 DALYs per year over the same time period. Our estimates, which account for multiple injuries, predict a 22-58% increase in overall health burden compared to the model ran as a single injury model.

conclusionsRoad traffic injuries are difficult to model with conventional modelling methods, owing to the numerous types of injuries that occur. Using an individual-based model framework, we can provide a detailed representation of road traffic injuries. Our results indicate a higher health burden caused by road traffic injuries than previously estimated.

Indexed as

Health burdenIndividual-based modelMalawiRoad traffic injuries

Identifiers

PMID35821170
PMCPMC9275162

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.