Trial reportBMC pulmonary medicine2022
Development and validation of a clinical risk model to predict the hospital mortality in ventilated patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome: a population-based study.
Trial report in BMC pulmonary medicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Early Prediction of Mortality Risk in Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Journal of medical Internet research · 2025Pooled it
- Clinical models for predicting 30-day mortality in ARDS: A focus on ventilatory ratio-defined subgroups.Journal of intensive medicine · 2026Article
- Prognostic value of the PaOBMJ open · 2025Observational
- Red Blood Cell Distribution Width (RDW) as Predictor of the Clinical Course and Mortality in Patients With Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS): A Retrospective Study.Health science reports · 2025Article
- Predictive modeling of ARDS mortality integrating biomarker/cytokine, clinical and metabolomic data.Translational research : the journal of laboratory and clinical medicine · 2025Article
- Prognostic Value of Erythrogram Indicators and C-Reactive Protein Levels in Predicting Outcomes of Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019.International journal of molecular sciences · 2025Article
- Predictive validity of the sequential organ failure assessment score for mortality in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome in Vietnam.Scientific reports · 2025Observational
- Indian Society of Critical Care Medicine and Indian Association of Palliative Care Expert Consensus and Position Statements for End-of-life and Palliative Care in the Intensive Care Unit.Indian journal of critical care medicine : peer-reviewed, official publication of Indian Society of Critical Care Medicine · 2024Article
- Interpretable machine learning for predicting 28-day all-cause in-hospital mortality for hypertensive ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke patients in the ICU: a multi-center retrospective cohort study with internal and external cross-validation.Frontiers in neurology · 2023Article
- Prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients at high altitudes with ARDS due to COVID-19.PloS one · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundLarge variability in mortality exists in patients of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), especially those with invasive ventilation. The aim of this study was to develop a model to predict risk of in-hospital death in ventilated ARDS patients.
methodsVentilated patients with ARDS from two public databases (MIMIC-III and eICU-CRD) were randomly divided as training cohort and internal validation cohort. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and then Logistic regression was used to construct a predictive model with demographic, clinical, laboratory, comorbidities and ventilation variables ascertained at first 24 h of ICU admission and invasive ventilation. Our model was externally validated using data from another database (MIMIC-IV).
resultsA total of 1075 adult patients from MIMIC-III and eICU were randomly divided into training cohort (70%, n = 752) and internal validation cohort (30%, n = 323). 521 patients were included from MIMIC-IV. From 176 potential predictors, 9 independent predictive factors were included in the final model. Five variables were ascertained within the first 24 h of ICU admission, including age (OR, 1.02; 95% CI: 1.01-1.03), mean of respiratory rate (OR, 1.04; 95% CI: 1.01-1.08), the maximum of INR (OR, 1.14; 95% CI: 1.03-1.31) and alveolo-arterial oxygen difference (OR, 1.002; 95% CI: 1.001-1.003) and the minimum of RDW (OR, 1.17; 95% CI: 1.09-1.27). And four variables were collected within the first 24 h of invasive ventilation: mean of temperature (OR, 0.70; 95% CI: 0.57-0.86), the maximum of lactate (OR, 1.15; 95% CI: 1.09-1.22), the minimum of blood urea nitrogen (OR, 1.02; 95% CI: 1.01-1.03) and white blood cell counts (OR, 1.03; 95% CI: 1.01-1.06). Our model achieved good discrimination (AUC: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.73-0.80) in training cohort but the performance declined in internal (AUC: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.69-0.80) and external validation cohort (0.70, 95% CI: 0.65-0.74) and showed modest calibration.
conclusionsA risk score based on routinely collected variables at the start of admission to ICU and invasive ventilation can predict mortality of ventilated ARDS patients, with a moderate performance.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.