Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35817231›Full record

ArticleClinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases2022

Estimation of local transmissibility in the early phase of monkeypox epidemic in 2022.

Kin On Kwok, Wan In Wei, Arthur Tang, Samuel Yeung Shan Wong, Julian W Tang

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Clinical microbiology and infection : the official publication of the European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Transmission Dynamics of Mpox in Peru During the 2022 Outbreak.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2025
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Review
  13. Review
  14. Monkeypox.Lancet (London, England) · 2023
    Review
  15. Human Monkeypox-A Global Public Health Emergency.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022
    Review
  16. Monkeypox infection: An update for the practicing physician.European journal of internal medicine · 2022
    Review
  17. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Kin On KwokJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; Stanley Ho Centre for Emerging Infectious Diseases, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; Hong Kong Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; Shenzhen Research Institute, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, China. Electronic address: kkokwok@cuhk.edu.hk.
Wan In WeiJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Arthur TangCollege of Computing and Informatics, Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Samuel Yeung Shan WongJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
Julian W TangRespiratory Sciences, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK; Clinical Microbiology, Leicester Royal Infirmary, Leicester, UK. Electronic address: jwtang49@hotmail.com.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesTo estimate the basic reproductive number (Ro) to help us understand and control the spread of monkeypox in immunologically naive populations.

methodsUsing three highest incidence populations including England, Portugal, and Spain as examples as of 18 June 2022, we employed the branching process with a Poisson likelihood and gamma-distributed serial interval to fit daily reported case data of monkeypox to estimate Ro. Sensitivity analyses were performed by varying mean serial interval from 6.8 to 12.8 days.

resultsThe median posterior estimates of Ro for monkeypox in the three study populations were statistically >1 (England: Ro = 1.60 [95% (credible interval) CrI, 1.50-1.70]; Portugal: Ro = 1.40 [95% CrI, 1.20-1.60]; Spain: Ro = 1.80 [95% CrI, 1.70-2.00]). Ro estimates varied over 1.30 to 2.10, depending on the serial interval. DISCUSSION: The updated Ro estimates across different populations will inform policy makers' plans for public health control measures. Currently, monkeypox has a sustainable outbreak potential and may challenge healthcare systems, mainly due to declines in the population level immunity to Orthopoxviruses since the cessation of routine smallpox vaccination. Smallpox vaccination has been shown to be effective in protecting (≤85% effectiveness) against monkeypox infection in earlier times. So early postexposure vaccination is currently being offered in an attempt to control its spread.

Indexed as

EpidemicsMpox, MonkeypoxSmallpoxDisease OutbreaksHumansVaccinationBasic reproductive numberBranching processEpidemicMonkeypoxOutbreak

Identifiers

PMID35817231
PMCPMC9675054

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.