ArticleTherapeutic advances in respiratory disease
Predictive modeling of COPD exacerbation rates using baseline risk factors.
Article in Therapeutic advances in respiratory disease. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to 10 registered trials, which are not on this map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
A Randomized, Double Blind, Chronic Dosing, Placebo-Controlled, Parallel Group, Multi Center Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of PT003, PT005, and PT001 in Subjects With Moderate to Very Severe COPD, Compared With Placebo and Spiriva® Handihaler® (Tiotropium Bromide 18 µg Open-Label) as an Active Control
A Randomized, Double-Blind (Test Products and Placebo), Chronic Dosing (24 Weeks), Placebo-Controlled, Parallel Group, Multi-Center Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of PT003, PT005, and PT001 in Subjects With Moderate to Very Severe COPD, Compared With Placebo
A 28-Week, Multi-Center, Randomized, Double Blind, Parallel-Group, Active-Controlled Safety Extension Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of PT003, PT001, and PT005 in Subjects With Moderate to Very Severe COPD, With Spiriva® Handihaler® as an Active Control
A Randomized, Double-Blind, Chronic Dosing (24 Weeks), Placebo-Controlled, Parallel Group, Multi-Center Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of PT003, PT005, and PT001 in Subjects With Moderate to Very Severe COPD, Compared With Placebo
A Randomized, Double-Blind, Multi-Center, Parallel-Group Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of PT010 Relative to PT003 and PT009 on COPD Exacerbations Over a 52-Week Treatment Period in Subjects With Moderate to Very Severe COPD (Ethos)
A Randomized, Double-Blind, Parallel-Group, 24-Week, Chronic-Dosing, Multi-Center Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of PT010, PT003, and PT009 Compared With Symbicort® Turbuhaler® as an Active Control in Subjects With Moderate to Very Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
A Randomized, Double-Blind, Parallel-Group, 52-Week, Chronic-Dosing, Multi-Center Study to Assess the Safety and Tolerability of PT010, PT009 and PT003 in Subjects With Moderate to Very Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
A Randomized, Double-Blind, Parallel Group, Multi-Center Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of PT009 Compared to PT005 on COPD Exacerbations Over a 52-Week Treatment Period in Subjects With Moderate to Very Severe COPD
A Randomized, Double-Blind, Parallel Group, Multi-Center Study to Assess the Efficacy and Safety of PT009 Compared to PT005, PT008, and Open-label Symbicort® Turbuhaler®, as an Active Control, on Lung Function Over a 24-Week Treatment Period in Subjects With Moderate to Very Severe COPD
A Randomized, Double-Blind, Parallel-Group, 28-Week, Chronic-Dosing, Multi-Center, Extension Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of PT010, PT003, and PT009 in Japanese Subjects With Moderate to Very Severe Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Compared With Symbicort® Turbuhaler® as an Active Control
Who cites it
15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 25 citations in OpenAlex.
- Community-based prediction models of cardiovascular events, acute exacerbations and all-cause mortality in individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis on behalf of the International Cardiovascular and Respiratory Alliance.BMJ open respiratory research · 2026Pooled it
- Step up to triple therapy versus switch to dual bronchodilator therapy in patients with COPD on an inhaled corticosteroid/long-acting βRespiratory research · 2025Trial
- The role of artificial intelligence in predicting COPD exacerbations using multimodal data: a systematic review.ERJ open research · 2026Article
- Prognostic Models for Disease Progression and Outcomes in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.Journal of clinical medicine · 2025Review
- Short-acting βERJ open research · 2025Article
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- Real-World Effectiveness of Fluticasone Furoate/Umeclidinium/Vilanterol Once-Daily Single-Inhaler Triple Therapy for Symptomatic COPD: The ELLITHE Non-Interventional Trial.International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2024Article
- DElaying Disease Progression In COPD with Early Initiation of Dual Bronchodilator or Triple Inhaled PharmacoTherapy (DEPICT): A Predictive Modelling Approach.Advances in therapy · 2023Article
- Putative Bidirectionality of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Periodontal Disease: A Review of the Literature.Journal of clinical medicine · 2023Review
- In 'real world' patients with COPD, exacerbation history, and not blood eosinophils, is the most reliable predictor of future exacerbations.Respiratory research · 2023Article
- Investigation of the Methodology of Specific Airway Resistance Measurements in COPD.International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2023Article
- Unleashing the Power of Very Small Data to Predict Acute Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease · 2023Article
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Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
9 authors at 7 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundDemographic and disease characteristics have been associated with the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. Using previously collected multinational clinical trial data, we developed models that use baseline risk factors to predict an individual's rate of moderate/severe exacerbations in the next year on various pharmacological treatments for COPD.
methodsExacerbation data from 20,054 patients in the ETHOS, KRONOS, TELOS, SOPHOS, and PINNACLE-1, PINNACLE-2, and PINNACLE-4 studies were pooled. Machine learning was used to identify predictors of moderate/severe exacerbation rates. Important factors were selected for generalized linear modeling, further informed by backward variable selection. An independent test set was held back for validation.
resultsPrior exacerbations, eosinophil count, forced expiratory volume in 1 s percent predicted, prior maintenance treatments, reliever medication use, sex, COPD Assessment Test score, smoking status, and region were significant predictors of exacerbation risk, with response to inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs) increasing with higher eosinophil counts, more prior exacerbations, or additional prior treatments. Model fit was similar in the training and test set. Prediction metrics were ~10% better in the full model than in a simplified model based only on eosinophil count, prior exacerbations, and ICS use.
conclusionThese models predicting rates of moderate/severe exacerbations can be applied to a broad range of patients with COPD in terms of airway obstruction, eosinophil counts, exacerbation history, symptoms, and treatment history. Understanding the relative and absolute risks related to these factors may be useful for clinicians in evaluating the benefit: risk ratio of various treatment decisions for individual patients.Clinical trials registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02465567, NCT02497001, NCT02766608, NCT02727660, NCT01854645, NCT01854658, NCT02343458, NCT03262012, NCT02536508, and NCT01970878).
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.