ArticleModeling earth systems and environment2022
Mathematical modeling and optimal control of SARS-CoV-2 and tuberculosis co-infection: a case study of Indonesia.
Article in Modeling earth systems and environment, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed, 43 citations in OpenAlex.
- Robustness and exploration between the interplay of the nonlinear co-dynamics HIV/AIDS and pneumonia model via fractional differential operators and a probabilistic approach.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Computational study of a co-infection model of HIV/AIDS and hepatitis C virus models.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Article
- Co-dynamics of COVID-19 and TB with COVID-19 vaccination and exogenous reinfection for TB: An optimal control application.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 5 institutions in 6 countries.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
A new mathematical model incorporating epidemiological features of the co-dynamics of tuberculosis (TB) and SARS-CoV-2 is analyzed. Local asymptotic stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria are shown for the sub-models when the respective reproduction numbers are below unity. Bifurcation analysis is carried out for the TB only sub-model, where it was shown that the sub-model undergoes forward bifurcation. The model is fitted to the cumulative confirmed daily SARS-CoV-2 cases for Indonesia from February 11, 2021 to August 26, 2021. The fitting was carried out using the fmincon optimization toolbox in MATLAB. Relevant parameters in the model are estimated from the fitting. The necessary conditions for the existence of optimal control and the optimality system for the co-infection model is established through the application of Pontryagin's Principle. Different control strategies: face-mask usage and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, TB prevention as well as treatment controls for both diseases are considered. Simulations results show that: (1) the strategy against incident SARS-CoV-2 infection averts about 27,878,840 new TB cases; (2) also, TB prevention and treatment controls could avert 5,397,795 new SARS-CoV-2 cases. (3) In addition, either SARS-CoV-2 or TB only control strategy greatly mitigates a significant number of new co-infection cases.
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