ArticleThe European physical journal. Special topics2022
Long-term prediction of the sporadic COVID-19 epidemics induced by
Article in The European physical journal. Special topics, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Abstract
With the outbreaks of the COVID-19 epidemics in several provinces of China, government takes prevention and control measures to contain the epidemics. It is more difficult to make the long-term prediction of the sporadic COVID-19 epidemics than widespread ones in that the former cannot obey the laws of the infectious disease well like the latter. In this paper, we make long-term predictions including end time and final size, peak and peak time of current confirmed cases and the number of accumulative removed cases of the sporadic COVID-19 epidemics in different regions of China by a novel non-autonomous delayed SIR compartment model (S-susceptible, I-infected, R-removed). The key contribution of this paper is that under the rigorous containments, we find transmission rate
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