Climate adaptation in the market squid fishery: fishermen responses to past variability associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation cycles inform our understanding of adaptive capacity in the face of future climate change.

Evaluating the strategies fishermen have used to respond to short-term climate variability in the past can help inform our understanding of the adaptive capacity of a fishery in the face of anticipated future change. Using historic fishery landings, climate records, and fishermen surveys, we document how market squid fishermen respond to high seasonal and interannual climate variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and responses to hypothetical future scenarios of low abundance and range shift. Overall, fishermen have been able to adapt to dramatic shifts in the geographic range of the fishery given their high mobility, with fishermen with larger vessels expressing a willingness to travel greater distances than those with smaller vessels. Nearly half of fishermen stated that they would switch fisheries if market squid decreased dramatically in abundance, although fishermen who were older, had been in the fishery longer, were highly dependent on squid for income, and held only squid and/or coastal pelagic finfish permits were less likely to switch to another fishery in a scenario of lower abundance. While market squid fishermen have exhibited highly adaptive behavior in the face of past climate variability, recent (and likely future) range shifts across state boundaries, as well as closures of other fisheries, constrain fishermen's choices and emphasize the need for flexibility in management systems. Our study highlights the importance of considering connectivity between fisheries and monitoring and anticipating trans-jurisdictional range shifts to facilitate adaptive fishery management. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-022-03394-z.