ArticlePLoS computational biology2022
Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 26 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
26 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Spatio-Temporal COVID-19 Modeling: A Global Systematic Review of Data Integration, Equity, and Lessons for Pandemic Preparedness.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Pooled it
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- A Fokker-Planck framework for control of epidemics.Journal of mathematical biology · 2026Article
- Epidemiological indices with multiple circulating pathogen strains.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Hotspot model shows how location-based superspreading accelerates and reshapes epidemics.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Analyzing greedy vaccine allocation algorithms for metapopulation disease models.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Protect or prevent? A practicable framework for the dilemmas of COVID-19 vaccine prioritization.PloS one · 2025Article
- Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Review
- Optimal vaccination strategies on networks and in metropolitan areas.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Article
- Novel multi-cluster workflow system to support real-time HPC-enabled epidemic science: Investigating the impact of vaccine acceptance on COVID-19 spread.Journal of parallel and distributed computing · 2024Article
- A Physics-Informed Neural Network approach for compartmental epidemiological models.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Differentiating behavioral impact with or without vaccination certification under mass vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on mitigating COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Modeling geographic vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in Norway.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Strategies and Trends in COVID-19 Vaccination Delivery: What We Learn and What We May Use for the Future.Vaccines · 2023Article
- Optimized numerical solutions of SIRDVW multiage model controlling SARS-CoV-2 vaccine roll out: An application to the Italian scenario.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2023Article
- Retrospective analysis of equity-based optimization for COVID-19 vaccine allocation.PNAS nexus · 2023Article
- Retrospective Analysis of Equity-Based Optimization for COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- A stratified compartmental model for the transmission ofRoyal Society open science · 2023Article
- Optimal allocation strategies for prioritized geographical vaccination for Covid-19.Physica A · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
While campaigns of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are underway across the world, communities face the challenge of a fair and effective distribution of a limited supply of doses. Current vaccine allocation strategies are based on criteria such as age or risk. In the light of strong spatial heterogeneities in disease history and transmission, we explore spatial allocation strategies as a complement to existing approaches. Given the practical constraints and complex epidemiological dynamics, designing effective vaccination strategies at a country scale is an intricate task. We propose a novel optimal control framework to derive the best possible vaccine allocation for given disease transmission projections and constraints on vaccine supply and distribution logistics. As a proof-of-concept, we couple our framework with an existing spatially explicit compartmental COVID-19 model tailored to the Italian geographic and epidemiological context. We optimize the vaccine allocation on scenarios of unfolding disease transmission across the 107 provinces of Italy, from January to April 2021. For each scenario, the optimal solution significantly outperforms alternative strategies that prioritize provinces based on incidence, population distribution, or prevalence of susceptibles. Our results suggest that the complex interplay between the mobility network and the spatial heterogeneities implies highly non-trivial prioritization strategies for effective vaccination campaigns. Our work demonstrates the potential of optimal control for complex and heterogeneous epidemiological landscapes at country, and possibly global, scales.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.