ArticlePloS one2022
How many people is the COVID-19 pandemic pushing into poverty? A long-term forecast to 2050 with alternative scenarios.
Article in PloS one, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers.
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11 citing papers in PubMed.
- Broadly quantifying SSP elements for 188 countries to 2150 in International Futures.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Determinants of COVID-19 prevalence in Central Java, Indonesia: An ecological study of socio-demographic, environmental, and healthcare factors.Dialogues in health · 2026Article
- [Temporal and spatial heterogeneities of childhood vaccination coverage in Brazilian state capitals: a methodological proposal using an applied and expected dose ratio].Cadernos de saude publica · 2026Article
- The future of pandemic modeling in support of decision making: lessons learned from COVID-19.BMC global and public health · 2025Article
- Disparities in Colorectal Cancer Screening Before and After the Onset of the COVID Pandemic.Journal of general internal medicine · 2025Article
- Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Suicide Mortality in Brazil: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2025Article
- Article
- Investigating the Associations between Drought, Poverty, High-Risk Sexual Behaviours, and HIV Incidence in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Cross-Sectional Study.AIDS and behavior · 2024Article
- Article
- Analysing the Predictors of Financial Stress and Financial Well-Being among the Bottom 40 Percent (B40) Households in Malaysia.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- The emotional and social impact of COVID-19 on postpartum women: A qualitative analysis on the experiences of women who gave birth during the pandemic in New York City.Women's health (London, England)Article
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11 authors.
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the course of human development. In this manuscript we analyze the long-term effect of COVID-19 on poverty at the country-level across various income thresholds to 2050. We do this by introducing eight quantitative scenarios that model the future of Sustainable Development Goal 1 (SDG1) achievement using alternative assumptions about COVID-19 effects on both economic growth and inequality in the International Futures model. Relative to a scenario without the pandemic (the No COVID scenario), the COVID Base scenario increases global extreme poverty by 73.9 million in 2020 (the range across all scenarios: 43.5 to 155.0 million), 63.6 million in 2030 (range: 9.8 to 167.2 million) and 57.1 million in 2050 (range: 3.1 to 163.0 million). The COVID Base results in seven more countries not meeting the SDG1 target by 2030 that would have achieved the target in a No COVID scenario. The most pessimistic scenario results in 17 more countries not achieving SDG1 compared with a No COVID scenario. The greatest pandemic driven increases in poverty occur in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
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