ArticleJournal of the American Geriatrics Society2022
A comprehensive prognostic tool for older adults: Predicting death, ADL disability, and walking disability simultaneously.
Article in Journal of the American Geriatrics Society, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 14 citations in OpenAlex.
- Disability risk prediction models in community-dwelling older adults: a systematic review.BMC geriatrics · 2026Pooled it
- Risk prediction models for disability in older adults: a systematic review and critical appraisal.BMC geriatrics · 2024Pooled it
- Association Between Periodontal Disease and Cumulative Coping Challenges: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Exploratory Educational Study.Clinical and experimental dental research · 2026Article
- The promise and peril of AI for disability health equity: A justice-centered narrative review.PLOS digital health · 2026Review
- Sarcopenic obesity and body composition phenotypes in older adults with chronic kidney disease: associations with estimated mortality risk.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Identifying a fitness tool in early old-age to predict long-term risk of disability, severe disability, and mortality.GeroScience · 2026Article
- A prospective study of age-related functional impairments, mortality, and life expectancy of Chinese adults aged 50.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Mapping evolving care needs in older adults with disabilities: a qualitative study.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Application of interpretable machine learning to predict activities of daily living disability in sarcopenia: insights from the CHARLS dataset.BMC geriatrics · 2025Article
- Prognostication in Alzheimer's disease and related dementias.Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · 2025Article
- Holistic and Personalized Strategies for Managing in Elderly Type 2 Diabetes Patients.Diabetes & metabolism journal · 2024Review
- Impact of Advance Care Planning on the Hospitalization-Associated Utilization and Cost of Patients with Alzheimer's Disease-Related Disorders Receiving Primary Care via Telehealth in a Provider Shortage Area: A Quantitative Pre-Study.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Disability risk prediction model based on machine learning among Chinese healthy older adults: results from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundMany clinical and financial decisions for older adults depend on the future risk of disability and mortality. Prognostic tools for long-term disability risk in a general population are lacking. We aimed to create a comprehensive prognostic tool that predicts the risk of mortality, of activities of daily living (ADL) disability, and walking disability simultaneously using the same set of variables.
methodsWe conducted a longitudinal analysis of the nationally-representative Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We included community-dwelling adults aged ≥70 years who completed a core interview in the 2000 wave of HRS, with follow-up through 2018. We evaluated 40 predictors encompassing demographics, diseases, physical functioning, and instrumental ADLs. We applied novel methods to optimize three models simultaneously while prioritizing variables that take less time to ascertain during backward stepwise elimination. The death prediction model used Cox regression and both the models for walking disability and for ADL disability used Fine and Gray competing-risk regression. We examined calibration plots and generated optimism-corrected statistics of discrimination using bootstrapping. To simulate unavailable patient data, we also evaluated models excluding one or two variables from the final model.
resultsIn 6646 HRS participants, 2662 developed walking disability, 3570 developed ADL disability, and 5689 died during a median follow-up of 9.5 years. The final prognostic tool had 16 variables. The optimism-corrected integrated area under the curve (iAUC) was 0.799 for mortality, 0.685 for walking disability, and 0.703 for ADL disability. At each percentile of predicted mortality risk, there was a substantial spread in the predicted risks of walking disability and ADL disability. Discrimination and calibration remained good even when missing one or two predictors from the model. This model is now available on ePrognosis (https://eprognosis.ucsf.edu/alexlee.php)
conclusionsGiven the variability in disability risk for people with similar mortality risks, using individualized risks of disabilities may inform clinical and financial decisions for older adults.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.