Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35790787›Full record

Trial reportProstate cancer and prostatic diseases2023

Development and validation of a multivariable prognostic model in de novo metastatic castrate sensitive prostate cancer.

Soumyajit Roy, Yilun Sun, Cristopher J D Wallis, Scott C Morgan, Scott Grimes, Julia Malone, Amar U Kishan, Dibya Mukherjee, Daniel E Spratt, Fred Saad and 1 more

Abstract readRandomized Controlled TrialClinical Trial, Phase III
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Trial report in Prostate cancer and prostatic diseases, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
8citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

8 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  5. Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Soumyajit Roy *Department of Radiation Oncology, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, IL, USA. soumyajitroy8@gmail.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6617-5522
Yilun Sun *Department of Population and Quantitative Health Sciences, School of Medicine, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, USA.
Cristopher J D Wallis *Department of Urology, Mount Sinai Hospital, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5990-4026
Scott C Morgan *Division of Radiation Oncology, The Ottawa Hospital Cancer Centre, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6568-3346
Scott GrimesDivision of Radiation Oncology, The Ottawa Hospital Cancer Centre, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
Julia MaloneDivision of Radiation Oncology, The Ottawa Hospital Cancer Centre, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
Amar U KishanDepartment of Radiation Oncology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7437-6591
Dibya MukherjeeInstitute of Computational Biology, Bengaluru, India.
Daniel E Spratt *Department of Radiation Oncology, University Hospitals Seidman Cancer Center, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland, OH, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5973-4741
Fred Saad *Department of Surgery, Université de Montréal, Montreal, QC, Canada.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2986-5617
Shawn Malone *Division of Radiation Oncology, The Ottawa Hospital Cancer Centre, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada. smalone@toh.ca.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5497-3455

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMetastatic castrate sensitive prostate cancer (mCSPC) is a heterogeneous disease state with variable prognosis. Although several life-prolonging systemic agents are available, there is no robust multivariable model to predict prognosis and improve risk stratification in mCSPC. The objective of this study was to build and validate a multivariable prognostic model to predict overall survival (OS) in mCSPC.

methodsWe used data from LATITUDE, a phase III randomized controlled trial in which men with de novo mCSPC were randomly allocated to either ADT plus abiraterone or ADT with placebo. Patients with non-missing data (n = 1,058) were randomly split in a 70:30 ratio to training (n = 743) and testing (n = 315) sets. Elastic net regression was used for variable selection. A multivariable Cox regression model for OS was then fitted using the selected variables. The predictive accuracy of the model was assessed on the testing set using the time-dependent area under curve (tAUC) with bootstrapped confidence intervals [CI] primarily for OS and secondarily for radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS).

resultsThe 11 prognostic variables in the final model were performance status, number of skeletal metastases, Gleason score, presence of liver metastasis, worst pain score, albumin, lactate dehydrogenase, prostate-specific antigen, hemoglobin, and treatment regimen. The tAUC for predicting OS at 2- and 3-years was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.67-0.80) and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.65-0.77), respectively. The tAUC for rPFS at 2- and 3-years was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.65-0.77) and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.70-0.82), respectively.

conclusionsA prognostic model for men with de novo mCSPC was developed and validated in an independent testing set. Our model had high accuracy for predicting OS and rPFS. The model includes commonly used clinical and laboratory parameters and can guide risk stratification of these patients for participation in future trials.

Indexed as

Prostatic NeoplasmsProstatic Neoplasms, Castration-ResistantAndrogen AntagonistsAntineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy ProtocolsHumansMaleNeoplasm GradingPrognosisProportional Hazards ModelsProstate-Specific AntigenAndrogen AntagonistsProstate-Specific Antigen

Identifiers

PMID35790787

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.