Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35790744›Full record

ArticleNature communications2022

Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities.

Joshua E Cinner, Iain R Caldwell, Lauric Thiault, John Ben, Julia L Blanchard, Marta Coll, Amy Diedrich, Tyler D Eddy, Jason D Everett, Christian Folberth and 18 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 7 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
7citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

7 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

28 authors.

Joshua E CinnerARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia. Joshua.cinner@jcu.edu.au.ORCID 0000-0003-2675-9317
Iain R CaldwellARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-8148-8762
Lauric ThiaultNational Center for Scientific Research, PSL Université Paris, CRIOBE, USR 3278, CNRS-EPHE-UPVD, Maison des Océans, 195 rue Saint-Jacques, 75005, Paris, France.ORCID 0000-0002-5572-7632
John BenPrivate Fisheries and Environment Consultant, Lau, Morobe, Papua New Guinea.
Julia L BlanchardInstitute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-0532-4824
Marta CollInstitute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC) & Ecopath International Initiative (EII), Barcelona, 08003, Spain.ORCID 0000-0001-6235-5868
Amy DiedrichCollege of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Building 142, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia.
Tyler D EddyCentre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries & Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, NL, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-2833-9407
Jason D EverettSchool of Mathematics and Physics, University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-6681-8054
Christian FolberthBiodiversity and Natural Resources Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria.ORCID 0000-0002-6738-5238
Didier GascuelDECOD (Ecosystem Dynamics and Sustainability), Institut Agro / Inrae / Ifremer, Rennes, France.ORCID 0000-0001-5447-6977
Jerome GuietDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2146-5160
Georgina G GurneyARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811, Australia.
Ryan F HeneghanSchool of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-7626-1248
Jonas JägermeyrNASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, NY, USA.
Narriman JiddawiInstitute for Marine Science, University of Dar Es Salaam, Zanzibar, Tanzania.
Rachael LahariEnvironment and Marine Scientist, New Ireland Province, Papua New Guinea.
John KuangeWildlife Conservation Society, Goroka, EHP, Papua New Guinea.
Wenfeng LiuCenter for Agricultural Water Research in China, College of Water Resources and Civil Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100083, China.ORCID 0000-0002-8699-3677
Olivier MauryMARBEC, IRD, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, Sète, France.ORCID 0000-0002-7999-9982
Christoph MüllerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-9491-3550
Camilla NovaglioInstitute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-3681-1377
Juliano Palacios-AbrantesCenter for Limnology, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Wisconsin, WI, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-8969-5416
Colleen M PetrikScripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, CA, 92093, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3253-0455
Ando RabearisoaDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5371-7695
Derek P TittensorDepartment of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada.
Andrew WamukotaSchool of Environmental and Earth Sciences, Pwani University, P.O. Box 195, Kilifi, Kenya.
Richard PollnacDepartment of Marine Affairs, University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI, 02881, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeFisheriesAgricultureIndonesiaMadagascar

Identifiers

PMID35790744
PMCPMC9256605

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.