ArticleJournal of Korean medical science2022
Multi-Faceted Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic in Korea Considering Omicron Variant: Mathematical Modeling-Based Study.
Article in Journal of Korean medical science, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Integrated Clinical and Social Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Korea: A Combined Systematic and Narrative Review.Journal of Korean medical science · 2026Pooled it
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- A Nationwide Social Contact Survey Dataset for Public Health and Social Sciences Research in South Korea.Scientific data · 2026Article
- Social contact patterns in South Korea: an analysis of a survey conducted in 2023-2024.BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- A cross-sectional study of COVID-19 testing and disclosure hesitancy: The role of responsibility attribution in South Korea.PloS one · 2025Article
- Risk of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Transmission in Seoul, Korea.Infection & chemotherapy · 2024Article
- Cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 variants effects in an age-structured model.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Risk estimation of lifted mask mandates and emerging variants using mathematical model.Heliyon · 2023Article
- Mathematical Modeling of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Wave under Vaccination Effects.Computation (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission and Intervention in South Korea: A Review of Literature.Yonsei medical journal · 2023Review
- Modelling the end of a Zero-COVID strategy using nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, vaccination and NPIs in Wallis and Futuna.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2023Article
- Fractal-fractional age-structure study of omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant transmission dynamics.Partial differential equations in applied mathematics : a spin-off of Applied Mathematics Letters · 2022Article
- The Omicron variant of concern: The genomics, diagnostics, and clinical characteristics in children.Frontiers in pediatrics · 2022Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe most recent variant of concern, omicron (B.1.1.529), has caused numerous cases worldwide including the Republic of Korea due to its fast transmission and reduced vaccine effectiveness.
methodsA mathematical model considering age-structure, vaccine, antiviral drugs, and influx of the omicron variant was developed. We estimated transmission rates among age groups using maximum likelihood estimation for the age-structured model. The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs; in community and border), quantified by a parameter μ in the force of infection, and vaccination were examined through a multi-faceted analysis. A theory-based endemic equilibrium study was performed to find the manageable number of cases according to omicron- and healthcare-related factors.
resultsBy fitting the model to the available data, the estimated values of μ ranged from 0.31 to 0.73, representing the intensity of NPIs such as social distancing level. If μ < 0.55 and 300,000 booster shots were administered daily from February 3, 2022, the number of severe cases was forecasted to exceed the severe bed capacity. Moreover, the number of daily cases is reduced as the timing of screening measures is delayed. If screening measure was intensified as early as November 24, 2021 and the number of overseas entrant cases was contained to 1 case per 10 days, simulations showed that the daily incidence by February 3, 2022 could have been reduced by 87%. Furthermore, we found that the incidence number in mid-December 2021 exceeded the theory-driven manageable number of daily cases.
conclusionNPIs, vaccination, and antiviral drugs influence the spread of omicron and number of severe cases in the Republic of Korea. Intensive and early screening measures during the emergence of a new variant is key in controlling the epidemic size. Using the endemic equilibrium of the model, a formula for the manageable daily cases depending on the severity rate and average length of hospital stay was derived so that the number of severe cases does not surpass the severe bed capacity.
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