ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2022
From pandemic to a new normal: Strategies to optimise governmental interventions in Indonesia based on an SVEIQHR-type mathematical model.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Predictive dynamical modeling and stability of the equilibria in a discrete fractional difference COVID-19 epidemic model.Results in physics · 2023Article
- Optimal COVID-19 epidemic strategy with vaccination control and infection prevention measures in Thailand.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2022Article
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3 authors.
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Abstract
There are five different forms of intervention presently realised by the Indonesian government in an effort to end the COVID-19 pandemic: vaccinations, social restrictions, tracings, testings, and treatments. In this paper, we construct a mathematical model of type SVEIQHR (susceptible-vaccinated-exposed-infected-quarantined-hospitalised-recovered) for the disease's spread in the country, which incorporates as parameters the rates of the above interventions, as well as the vaccine's efficacy. We determine the model's equilibria and basic reproduction number. Using the model, we formulate strategies by which the interventions should be realised in order to optimise their impact. The results show that, in a disease-free state, when the number of new cases rises, the best strategy is to implement social restrictions, whereas in an endemic state, if a near-lockdown policy is undesirable, carrying out vaccinations is the best strategy; however, efforts should be aimed not primarily towards increasing the vaccination rate, but towards the use of high-efficacy vaccines.
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