Using an experimental tobacco marketplace to pilot test the substitutability of JUUL e-cigarettes and other alternative nicotine and tobacco products for conventional cigarettes among vulnerable populations.

The Experimental Tobacco Marketplace (ETM) is an online research marketplace where increasing the cost of cigarettes is used to investigate the substitutability of other fixed-price tobacco products such as electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS). The ETM is useful for modeling effects of potential policy changes on use of various concurrently available products. To our knowledge, the ETM has not been used to investigate substitutability of newer generation e-cigarettes or populations at increased risk for smoking, heavy smoking, nicotine dependence, and smoking-attributable adverse effects. In the current pilot study, participants were 30 adult daily smokers with socioeconomic disadvantage or comorbid psychiatric conditions (substance-use disorder or mental illness). In each session, cigarette prices increased ($0.12, $0.25, $0.50, $1.00. and $2.00 per cigarette) while prices for alternative products remained fixed. Across three ETM sessions, either all products, all products except little cigars and cigarillos (LCCs), or all products except ENDS (JUUL e-cigarettes) were available. Linear regression was performed on individual participant data using log-transformed cigarette price to determine demand and substitution. Cigarette demand decreased as price increased across sessions (significantly non-zero slopes, ps ≤ 0.0001). When all products were available, ENDS substitution increased as cigarette price increased (significantly non-zero slope, p = .016). When LCCs were unavailable, ENDS again were a significant substitute (p = .008). When ENDS were unavailable, LCCs did not substitute (ps ≥ 0.48). In all sessions, participants rarely purchased other products (e.g., snus). Overall, ENDS were the most robust substitute for cigarettes, further underscoring the potential importance of ENDS availability on the impact of tobacco regulatory policies.