ArticleCommunications medicine2022
Modeling the impact of COVID-19 on future tuberculosis burden.
Article in Communications medicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 24 citations in OpenAlex.
- The Americas are not on track to end TB: tuberculosis incidence analysis under the 2025 WHO goals.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Population-level and longitudinal MIC distributions for antimicrobials against drug-resistantFrontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2026Article
- Global excess tuberculosis mortality during COVID-19: a country-level modeling study of policy and development correlates.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Therapeutic potential of Bacillus sonorensis PMC204 membrane vesicles against drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis.Medical microbiology and immunology · 2025Article
- Tuberculosis Trends in the Post-COVID-19 Era: Is It Going to be a Global Concern?Health science reports · 2025Article
- Long-term impact of COVID-19-related nonpharmaceutical interventions on tuberculosis: an interrupted time series analysis using Bayesian method.Journal of global health · 2025Article
- Predicting the Incidence Rate of Tuberculosis in Western Iran Using Time Series Models Before and After COVID-19.Medical journal of the Islamic Republic of Iran · 2025Article
- The interplay of tuberculosis and COVID-19: Insights into global health challenges.Journal of biosciences · 2025Review
- Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2024Article
- "I pity the TB patient": a mixed methods study assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB services in two major Indonesian cities and distilling lessons for the future.BMJ global health · 2024Article
- Article
- The Predicted Potential Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Tuberculosis Epidemic in Tamil Nadu, South India.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2024Article
- Tracking multidrug resistant tuberculosis: a 30-year analysis of global, regional, and national trends.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- The global impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis: A thematic scoping review, 2020-2023.PLOS global public health · 2024Article
- Model-based impact evaluation of new tuberculosis vaccines in aging populations under different modeling scenarios: the case of China.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Lessons for TB from the COVID-19 response: qualitative data from Brazil, India and South Africa.Public health action · 2023Article
- Impact on Tuberculosis Notification During COVID-19 Pandemic in India: A Narrative Review.Cureus · 2023Review
- Flaws and uncertainties in pandemic global excess death calculations.European journal of clinical investigation · 2023Review
- Determinants of tuberculosis: an example of high tuberculosis burden in the Saharia tribe.Frontiers in public health · 2023Review
- Digital cities and the spread of COVID-19: Characterizing the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions in five cities in Spain.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors at 2 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has greatly disrupted our everyday life, forcing the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions in many countries and putting public health services and healthcare systems worldwide under stress. These circumstances are leading to unintended effects such as the increase in the burden of other diseases. Methods: Here, using a data-driven epidemiological model for tuberculosis (TB) spreading, we describe the expected rise in TB incidence and mortality if COVID-associated changes in TB notification are sustained and attributable entirely to disrupted diagnosis and treatment adherence. Results: Our calculations show that the reduction in diagnosis of new TB cases due to the COVID-19 pandemic could result in 228k (CI 187-276) excess deaths in India, 111k (CI 93-134) in Indonesia, 27k (CI 21-33) in Pakistan, and 12k (CI 9-18) in Kenya. Conclusions: We show that it is possible to reverse these excess deaths by increasing the pre-covid diagnosis capabilities from 15 to 50% for 2 to 4 years. This would prevent almost all TB-related excess mortality that could be caused by the COVID-19 pandemic if no additional preventative measures are introduced. Our work therefore provides guidelines for mitigating the impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis epidemic in the years to come.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.