ArticleDrug and alcohol dependence reports2022
What is the prevalence of and trend in opioid use disorder in the United States from 2010 to 2019? Using multiplier approaches to estimate prevalence for an unknown population size.
Article in Drug and alcohol dependence reports, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT06554431 (Assessing the Efficacy of Self-Driven Repetitive Artmaking Practice on Pain and Mood States for Patients With Chronic Pain, Opioid Use Disorder, and Opioid Misuse), which is not on this map. Cited by 138 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Assessing the Efficacy of Self-Driven Repetitive Artmaking Practice on Pain and Mood States for Patients With Chronic Pain, Opioid Use Disorder, and Opioid Misuse
Who cites it
138 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Association between state cannabis laws and opioid outcomes: A systematic review.Drug and alcohol dependence · 2026Pooled it
- The therapeutic effects of psychedelics for opioid use disorder: A systematic review of clinical studies.Psychiatry research · 2025Pooled it
- Thresholds for adjunctive medication usage and probability of initiating injectable naltrexone.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2026Trial
- Efficacy of stochastic vibro-tactile stimulation for newborns at risk of neonatal opioid withdrawal syndrome.Pediatric research · 2026Trial
- Implementation of a Mobile Digital Tool Supporting Medication for Opioid Use Disorder Treatment Improves Retention: Stepped-Wedge Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial.Journal of medical Internet research · 2025Trial
- Effects of the Communities That HEAL intervention on initiation, retention, and linkage to medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD): A cluster randomized wait-list controlled trial.Drug and alcohol dependence · 2025Trial
- Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation for the treatment of suicidality in opioid use disorder: a pilot feasibility randomized controlled trial.European psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists · 2025Trial
- Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling of long-acting extended-release naltrexone in pregnant women with opioid use disorder.CPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology · 2024Trial
- Examining use of telehealth in jails: linking women to community OUD services.BMC women's health · 2024Trial
- Emotional urgency and lack of perseverance are linked to anxiety sensitivity and improve during early recovery from opioid use disorder.Addictive behaviors · 2026Article
- Integrating Medications for Addiction Treatment into Assertive Community Treatment Teams: A Pilot Feasibility Study.Community mental health journal · 2026Article
- Genetic Modulation of Oxycodone Self-Administration Trajectories: From Initiation to Escalating Burst Patterns.bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2026Article
- Xylazine potentiates the interoceptive effects of fentanyl in male and female rats.Psychopharmacology · 2026Article
- Estimating community-level prevalence of opioid use disorder: Extrapolating from Medicaid claims data and other publicly available data sources in Ohio, USA.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2026Article
- Burden of overdoses among persons with opioid use disorder in the United States, 2025-2028: a simulation modeling study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026Article
- Economic and Treatment Burden of Chronic Low-Back Pain Patients Transitioning from Short-Acting to Long-Acting Opioids or Buprenorphine Buccal Film: US Claims Analysis.Pain and therapy · 2026Article
- Developing and Validating a Machine Learning Algorithm to Predict the Risk of Incident Opioid Use Disorder Among OneFlorida+ Patients: Prognostic Modeling Study.Journal of medical Internet research · 2026Article
- Evaluation of opioid requirements in mechanically ventilated patients taking buprenorphine/naloxone prior to admission.Journal of critical care · 2026Article
- Productivity Losses From Substance Use Disorder in the U.S. in 2023.American journal of preventive medicine · 2026Article
- The impact of opioid prescribing guidelines on opioid dispensation: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Canadian journal of pain = Revue canadienne de la douleur · 2026Review
78 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Opioid-related overdose deaths have increased since 2010 in the U.S., but information on trends in opioid use disorder (OUD) prevalence is limited due to unreliable data. Multiplier methods are a classical epidemiological technique to estimate prevalence when direct estimation is infeasible or unreliable. We used two different multiplier approaches to estimate OUD prevalence from 2010 to 2019. First, we estimated OUD in National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), and based on existing capture-recapture studies, multiplied prevalence by 4.5x. Second, we estimated the probability of drug poisoning death among people with OUD (Meta-analysis indicates 0.52/100,000), and divided the number of drug poisoning deaths in the US by this probability. Estimates were weighted to account for increase in drug-related mortality in recent years due to fentanyl. Estimated OUD prevalence was lowest when estimated in NSDUH with no multiplier, and highest when estimated from vital statistics data without adjustment. Consistent findings emerged with two methods: NSDUH data with multiplier correction, and vital statistics data with multiplier and adjustment. From these two methods, OUD prevalence increased from 2010 to 2014; then stabilized and slightly declined annually (survey data with multiplier, highest prevalence of 4.0% in 2015; death data with a multiplier and correction, highest prevalence of 2.35% in 2016). The number of US adolescent and adult individuals with OUD in 2019 was estimated between 6.7-7.6 million. When multipliers and corrections are used, OUD may have stabilized or slightly declined after 2015. Nevertheless, it remains highly prevalent, affecting 6-7 million US adolescents and adults.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.