ArticlePloS one2022
Predicting the HIV/AIDS epidemic and measuring the effect of AIDS Conquering Project in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region.
Article in PloS one, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Delineating the "who-where-how" of persistent HIV epidemics: a 23-year longitudinal genetic network, phylodynamic, and spatial analysis for precise intervention in rural China.Emerging microbes & infections · 2026Article
- Immune reconstitution efficacy and the risk factors of immune non-responsiveness after combined antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 positive MSM and heterosexual population - a prospective cohort study.Immunity & ageing : I & A · 2026Article
- HIV/AIDS hidden transmission model with HIV testing and contact tracing in an SID community.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2026Article
- The impact of restricted community accessibility on needle and syringe sharing among drug users in Baise city: based on the event study method.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Prevalence, trends, and correlates of HIV, syphilis, and HCV infections among male attendees at STD clinics in Southwest China: a 13-year cross-sectional study (2010-2022).BMC infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Exploring regional air pollution transition dynamics: A multi-state markov model approach.PloS one · 2025Article
- Multi-state Markov model for time to treatment changes for HIV/AIDS patients: a retrospective cohort national datasets, Ethiopia.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Economic Evaluation of the Comprehensive AIDS Prevention and Control Program - Tianjin Municipality, China, 2011-2022.China CDC weekly · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
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Abstract
To control the HIV/AIDS epidemics in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in China, Guangxi government launched the 5-year Guangxi AIDS Conquering Project (GACP, Phase I: 2010-2014, Phase II: 2015-2020). In the project, three measures are implemented, such as great improvements of the coverage of HIV/AIDS education, promotion of HIV voluntary counseling and testing, and enhancement of antiretroviral treatment. In this paper, we explore the effects of the three measures of GACP by construction of a Susceptible-Infected-Diagnosed-Treated population compartments model and via evaluation of the basic reproduction number derived from the model. A computational framework is developed for estimating the model parameters based on the HIV surveillance data, with application of the Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo method and Nonlinear Least Squares method. By estimating the new infections and evaluating the basic reproduction number, we find that the implementation of the three measures of GACP has a significant effect on controlling the rise of HIV/AIDS cases and the epidemic trend. Compared with HIV voluntary counseling and testing, strengthening HIV/AIDS education and expanding the coverage of antiretroviral treatment show a greater impact on HIV/AIDS epidemic control, which provides a reference project for other provinces with a similar epidemic situation in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. At the same time, our research fills the current research gap for the evaluation of large-scale AIDS prevention and control projects in developing areas.
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