Novel predictors of daily fluctuations in glycemia and self-management in adolescents and young adults with type 1 diabetes.

aimsTo understand morning biopsychosocial factors that predict glycemia, adherence, and goal attainment in adolescents and young adults (AYA) with type 1 diabetes (T1D) on a daily basis.

methodsEight-eight AYA (mean 17.6 ± 2.6 years, 54% female, HbA1c 7.9 ± 1.4%, diabetes duration 8.5 ± 4.5 years) with T1D who use Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) completed a 2-week prospective study. Participants chose a self-management goal to focus on during participation. For six days, participants prospectively completed a 25-item Engagement Prediction Survey to assess biopsychosocial factors to predict daily diabetes outcomes and an end-of-day Goal Survey. Lasso and mixed-model regression were used to determine items in the Engagement Prediction Survey most predictive of perceived goal attainment, CGM Time-in-Range (TIR, 70-180 mg/dl), sensor mean glucose, number of insulin boluses and hyperglycemia response (bolus within 30 min of high alert or glucose <200 mg/dl within 2 hours).

resultsA 7-item model (including current glucose, planning/wanting to manage diabetes, wanting to skip self-management, feeling good about self, health perception and support needs) explained 16.7% of the daily variance in TIR, 18.6% of mean sensor glucose, 2.1% of the number of boluses, 14% of hyperglycemia response, and 28.7% of goal attainment perceptions. The mean absolute change in day-to-day TIR was 16%, sensor glucose was 30 mg/dl, and the number of boluses was 2. AYA reported more positive Engagement Prediction Survey responses on mornings when they awoke with lower glucose levels.

conclusionsMorning biopsychosocial state factors predict glycemic and adherence outcomes in AYA with diabetes and could be a novel intervention target for future behavioural interventions.