ArticleJournal of the Royal Society, Interface2022
Vaccination strategies when vaccines are scarce: on conflicts between reducing the burden and avoiding the evolution of escape mutants.
Article in Journal of the Royal Society, Interface, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Breakthrough infections and incomplete vaccine efficacy drive pathogen immune escape.PloS one · 2026Article
- Assessing the impacts of vaccination and viral evolution in contact networks.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Evolutionary safety of lethal mutagenesis driven by antiviral treatment.PLoS biology · 2023Article
- Individual costs and societal benefits of interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Evaluation of the T cell and B cell response following the administration of COVID-19 vaccines in Korea.Journal of microbiology, immunology, and infection = Wei mian yu gan ran za zhi · 2022Article
- Vaccination strategies when vaccines are scarce: on conflicts between reducing the burden and avoiding the evolution of escape mutants.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Article
- Efficiency in COVID-19 Vaccination Campaigns-A Comparison across Germany's Federal States.Vaccines · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
When vaccine supply is limited but population immunization urgent, the allocation of the available doses needs to be carefully considered. One aspect of dose allocation is the time interval between the first and the second injections in two-dose vaccines. By stretching this interval, more individuals can be vaccinated with the first dose more quickly, which can be beneficial in reducing case numbers, provided a single dose is sufficiently effective. On the other hand, there has been concern that intermediate levels of immunity in partially vaccinated individuals may favour the evolution of vaccine escape mutants. In that case, a large fraction of half-vaccinated individuals would pose a risk-but only if they encounter the virus. This raises the question whether there is a conflict between reducing the burden and the risk of vaccine escape evolution or not. We develop an SIR-type model to assess the population-level effects of the timing of the second dose. Trade-offs can occur both if vaccine escape evolution is more likely or if it is less likely in half-vaccinated than in unvaccinated individuals. Their presence or absence depends on the efficacies for susceptibility and transmissibility elicited by a single dose.
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Registered trials
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