Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35761274›Full record

ArticleBMC psychiatry2022

A machine-learning model to predict postoperative delirium following knee arthroplasty using electronic health records.

Jong Wook Jung, Sunghyun Hwang, Sunho Ko, Changwung Jo, Hye Youn Park, Hyuk-Soo Han, Myung Chul Lee, Jee Eun Park, Du Hyun Ro

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC psychiatry, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Jong Wook JungDepartment of Orthopedic Surgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
Sunghyun HwangDepartment of Orthopedic Surgery, Seoul National University Hospital, 101 Daehak-ro, Jongno-gu, Seoul, 110-744, South Korea.
Sunho KoDepartment of Orthopedic Surgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
Changwung JoDepartment of Orthopedic Surgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
Hye Youn ParkDepartment of Psychiatry, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seoul, South Korea.
Hyuk-Soo HanDepartment of Orthopedic Surgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
Myung Chul LeeDepartment of Orthopedic Surgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
Jee Eun ParkDepartment of Psychiatry, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, South Korea.
Du Hyun RoDepartment of Orthopedic Surgery, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea. duhyunro@gmail.com.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPostoperative delirium is a challenging complication due to its adverse outcome such as long hospital stay. The aims of this study were: 1) to identify preoperative risk factors of postoperative delirium following knee arthroplasty, and 2) to develop a machine-learning prediction model.

methodA total of 3,980 patients from two hospitals were included in this study. The model was developed and trained with 1,931 patients from one hospital and externally validated with 2,049 patients from another hospital. Twenty preoperative variables were collected using electronic hospital records. Feature selection was conducted using the sequential feature selection (SFS). Extreme Gradient Boosting algorithm (XGBoost) model as a machine-learning classifier was applied to predict delirium. A tenfold-stratified area under the curve (AUC) served as the metric for variable selection and internal validation.

resultsThe incidence rate of delirium was 4.9% (n = 196). The following seven key predictors of postoperative delirium were selected: age, serum albumin, number of hypnotics and sedatives drugs taken preoperatively, total number of drugs (any kinds of oral medication) taken preoperatively, neurologic disorders, depression, and fall-down risk (all p < 0.05). The predictive performance of our model was good for the developmental cohort (AUC: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.77-0.84). It was also good for the external validation cohort (AUC: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.80-0.83). Our model can be accessed at https://safetka.connecteve.com .

conclusionsA web-based predictive model for delirium after knee arthroplasty was developed using a machine-learning algorithm featuring seven preoperative variables. This model can be used only with information that can be obtained from pre-operative electronic hospital records. Thus, this model could be used to predict delirium before surgery and may assist physician's effort on delirium prevention.

Indexed as

Arthroplasty, Replacement, KneeDeliriumElectronic Health RecordsHumansMachine LearningRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentDeliriumMachine learningNeurologic disorderPredictionPreoperative modelTotal knee arthroplasty

Identifiers

PMID35761274
PMCPMC9235137

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.