ArticleBMC public health2022
The minimal COVID-19 vaccination coverage and efficacy to compensate for a potential increase of transmission contacts, and increased transmission probability of the emerging strains.
Article in BMC public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Efficacy versus coverage: population-level impacts of vaccination schemes.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2027Article
- Social media influence on COVID-19 vaccine perceptions among University students: a Malawi case study.BMC public health · 2024Article
- An Epidemic Model with Infection Age and Vaccination Age Structure.Infectious disease reports · 2024Article
- Assessing the Influence of COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage on Excess Mortality across 178 Countries: A Cross-Sectional Study.Vaccines · 2023Article
- The impact of vaccination on the modeling of COVID-19 dynamics: a fractional order model.Nonlinear dynamics · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundMass immunization is a potentially effective approach to finally control the local outbreak and global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it can also lead to undesirable outcomes if mass vaccination results in increased transmission of effective contacts and relaxation of other public health interventions due to the perceived immunity from the vaccine.
methodsWe designed a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics that takes into consideration the epidemiological status, public health intervention status (quarantined/isolated), immunity status of the population, and strain variations. Comparing the control reproduction numbers and the final epidemic sizes (attack rate) in the cases with and without vaccination, we quantified some key factors determining when vaccination in the population is beneficial for preventing and controlling future outbreaks.
resultsOur analyses predicted that there is a critical (minimal) vaccine efficacy rate (or a critical quarantine rate) below which the control reproduction number with vaccination is higher than that without vaccination, and the final attack rate in the population is also higher with the vaccination. We also predicted the worst case scenario occurs when a high vaccine coverage rate is achieved for a vaccine with a lower efficacy rate and when the vaccines increase the transmission efficient contacts.
conclusionsThe analyses show that an immunization program with a vaccine efficacy rate below the predicted critical values will not be as effective as simply investing in the contact tracing/quarantine/isolation implementation. We reached similar conclusions by considering the final epidemic size (or attack rates). This research then highlights the importance of monitoring the impact on transmissibility and vaccine efficacy of emerging strains.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.