Estimation of the number of inherited prion disease mutation carriers in the UK.

Inherited prion diseases (IPD) are a set of rare neurodegenerative diseases that are always caused by mutation of the prion protein gene (PRNP). These are highly heterogeneous in clinical presentation and best described by the specific gene mutation, but traditionally include the canonical syndromes familial Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, Gerstamann-Straussler-Scheinker syndrome, and fatal familial insomnia. In the UK, care of IPD patients and clinical PRNP sequencing have been carried out almost exclusively by the National Prion Clinic and affiliated laboratories since the disease gene was discovered in 1989. Using data obtained over 30 years (1990-2019), this study aimed to provide a greater understanding of the genetic prevalence of IPD using multiple complementary methods. A key source of bias in rare disorders is ascertainment, so we included an analysis based on capture-recapture techniques that may help to minimise ascertainment bias. 225 patients, with 21 different IPD mutations were identified, varying in frequency (with 8/21 mutations comprising over 90% observed cases), derived from 116 kindreds and 151 3-generation families. We estimated a total of 303 UK families (95% CI = 222, 384) segregate IPD mutations, 1091 (95% CI = 720, 1461) UK mutation carriers and a lifetime risk of approximately 1 in 60,000. Simpler methods of measuring prevalence based on extrapolation from the annual incidence of disease, and large scale genomic studies, result in similar estimates of prevalence. These estimates may be of value for planning preventive trials of therapeutics in IPD mutation carriers, prevention of prion disease transmission and provision of specialist services.