Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35753371›Full record

ArticleEnvironmental research2022

Comparison of pandemic excess mortality in 2020-2021 across different empirical calculations.

Michael Levitt, Francesco Zonta, John P A Ioannidis

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Environmental research, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 53 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
53citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

53 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  4. Paid and unpaid productivity losses across 28 European countries due to excess deaths and COVID-19 deaths from 2020 to 2023.The European journal of health economics : HEPAC : health economics in prevention and care · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Michael LevittDepartment of Structural Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
Francesco ZontaShanghai Institute for Advanced Immunochemical Studies, ShanghaiTech University, Shanghai, 201210, China.
John P A IoannidisDepartment of Medicine, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA; Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA; Department of Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA; Department of Statistics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA; Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA. Electronic address: jioannid@stanford.edu.

Funding

Emergent Properties of Complex Systems: From Atoms to Macromolecules; from Humans to SocietiesR35GM122543 · NIGMS · STANFORD UNIVERSITY · PI MICHAEL LEVITT · 2017 to 2026
$5.1M
NIGMS NIH HHS R35 GM122543
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Different modeling approaches can be used to calculate excess deaths for the COVID-19 pandemic period. We compared 6 calculations of excess deaths (4 previously published [3 without age-adjustment] and two new ones that we performed with and without age-adjustment) for 2020-2021. With each approach, we calculated excess deaths metrics and the ratio R of excess deaths over recorded COVID-19 deaths. The main analysis focused on 33 high-income countries with weekly deaths in the Human Mortality Database (HMD at mortality.org) and reliable death registration. Secondary analyses compared calculations for other countries, whenever available. Across the 33 high-income countries, excess deaths were 2.0-2.8 million without age-adjustment, and 1.6-2.1 million with age-adjustment with large differences across countries. In our analyses after age-adjustment, 8 of 33 countries had no overall excess deaths; there was a death deficit in children; and 0.478 million (29.7%) of the excess deaths were in people <65 years old. In countries like France, Germany, Italy, and Spain excess death estimates differed 2 to 4-fold between highest and lowest figures. The R values' range exceeded 0.3 in all 33 countries. In 16 of 33 countries, the range of R exceeded 1. In 25 of 33 countries some calculations suggest R > 1 (excess deaths exceeding COVID-19 deaths) while others suggest R < 1 (excess deaths smaller than COVID-19 deaths). Inferred data from 4 evaluations for 42 countries and from 3 evaluations for another 98 countries are very tenuous. Estimates of excess deaths are analysis-dependent and age-adjustment is important to consider. Excess deaths may be lower than previously calculated.

Indexed as

COVID-19MortalityPandemicsAgedChildDatabases, FactualHumansIncomeSpainCOVID-19EpidemiologyExcess mortalityModelingMortality

Identifiers

PMID35753371
PMCPMC9225924

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.