Evidence map›Paper›PMID 35750482›Full record

ArticleJournal of epidemiology and community health2022

Projections of smoking-related cancer mortality in Australia to 2044.

Qingwei Luo, Julia Steinberg, Xue Qin Yu, Marianne Weber, Michael Caruana, Sarsha Yap, Paul B Grogan, Emily Banks, Dianne L O'Connell, Karen Canfell

Open access · hybridAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of epidemiology and community health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed
0.4field-weighted citation impact, top 37% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed, 4 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Qingwei LuoThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia qingweil@nswcc.org.au.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8902-6869
Julia SteinbergThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Xue Qin YuThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Marianne WeberThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Michael CaruanaThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Sarsha YapThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Paul B GroganThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Emily BanksNational Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
Dianne L O'ConnellThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Karen CanfellThe Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a joint venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
The University of Sydney · AUAustralian National University · AU

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundWhile many high-income countries including Australia have successfully implemented a range of tobacco control policies, smoking remains the leading preventable cause of cancer death in Australia. We have projected Australian mortality rates for cancer types, which have been shown to have an established relationship with cigarette smoking and estimated numbers of cancer deaths attributable to smoking to 2044.

methodsCancer types were grouped according to the proportion of cases currently caused by smoking: 8%-30% and >30%. For each group, an age-period- cohort model or generalised linear model with cigarette smoking exposure as a covariate was selected based on the model fit statistics and validation using observed data. The smoking-attributable fraction (SAF) was calculated for each smoking-related cancer using Australian smoking prevalence data and published relative risks.

resultsDespite the decreasing mortality rates projected for the period 2015-2019 to 2040-2044 for both men and women, the overall number of smoking-related cancer deaths is estimated to increase by 28.7% for men and 35.8% for women: from 138 707 (77 839 men and 60 868 women) in 2015-2019 to 182 819 (100 153 men and 82 666 women) in 2040-2044. Over the period 2020-2044, there will be 254 583 cancer deaths (173 943 men and 80 640 women) directly attributable to smoking, with lung, larynx, oesophagus and oral (comprising lip, oral cavity and pharynx) cancers having the largest SAFs.

interpretationCigarette smoking will cause over 250 000 cancer deaths in Australia from 2020 to 2044. Continued efforts in tobacco control remain a public health priority, even in countries where smoking prevalence has substantially declined.

Indexed as

health servicesmortalityneoplasmspreventionsmoking

Identifiers

PMID35750482
PMCPMC9380484
OpenAlexW4283374896

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.