ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2022
Prediction and Trend Analysis of Regional Industrial Carbon Emission in China: A Study of Nanjing City.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Construction and analysis of China's carbon emission model based on machine learning.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Personality traits that associate with sustainable behaviors perceived by individuals.Brain and behavior · 2023Article
- Spatial Zoning of Carbon Dioxide Emissions at the Intra-City Level: A Case Study of Nanjing, China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Spatiotemporal Evolution of Carbon Emissions According to Major Function-Oriented Zones: A Case Study of Guangdong Province, China.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
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6 authors.
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Abstract
Based on the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model, the impact factors of industrial carbon emission in Nanjing were considered as total population, industrial output value, labor productivity, industrialization rate, energy intensity, research and development (R&D) intensity, and energy structure. Among them, the total population, industrial output value, labor productivity, and industrial energy structure played a role in promoting the increase of industrial carbon emissions in Nanjing, and the degree of influence weakened in turn. For every 1% change in these four factors, carbon emissions increased by 0.52%, 0.49%, 0.17% and 0.12%, respectively. The industrialization rate, R&D intensity, and energy intensity inhibited the increase of industrial carbon emissions, and the inhibiting effect weakened in turn. Every 1% change in these three factors inhibited the increase of industrial carbon emissions in Nanjing by 0.03%, 0.07%, and 0.02%, respectively. Then, taking the relevant data of industrial carbon emissions in Nanjing from 2006 to 2020 as a sample, the gray rolling prediction model with one variable and one first-order equation (GRPM (1,1)) forecast and scenario analysis is used to predict the industrial carbon emission in Nanjing under the influence of the pandemic from 2021 to 2030, and the three development scenarios were established as three levels of high-carbon, benchmark and low-carbon, It was concluded that Nanjing's industrial carbon emissions in 2030 would be 229.95 million tons under the high-carbon development scenario, 226.92 million tons under the benchmark development scenario, and 220.91 million tons under the low-carbon development scenario. It can not only provide data reference for controlling industrial carbon emissions in the future but also provide policy suggestions and development routes for urban planning decision-makers. Finally, it is hoped that this provides a reference for other cities with similar development as Nanjing.
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